An incoming storm is and will continue to push rain across the upper Midwest Saturday afternoon and evening, and with this rain will come a chance for some severe weather.

The storm prediction center upgraded parts of the area to MARGINAL (level 1/5) and SLIGHT (level 2/5) risks for severe weather this afternoon. There is a greater chance for severe weather towards the southeast (Floyd, Chickasaw, and Howard counties), and a minimal chance for severe weather towards the northwest (Freeborn, Dodge counties). 

This chance comes as a potent warm front is pushing north across the Midwest on Saturday. Behind this warm front is significant heat and moisture to provide instability. A surface low pressure center will swing right along the MN-IA border late this evening, but the main severe weather threat will be before this time, when the low pressure center is pushing across the area this afternoon with maximum instability.

On top of this, winds are heavily curving in the atmosphere, with a strong jet stream from the southwest provide ample wind shear to ventilate and help spin up storms, especially to the southeast. 

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THREATS: The main threats on Saturday will be moderate flooding as rain totals could be around an inch, and strong winds / small hail associated with stronger thunderstorm cells. 

TIMING: The severe weather threat will start 1-2pm in parts of Northern Iowa, and end this evening around 8-10pm, the best window for severe weather will be between 4-7pm. Rain will continue on/off throughout the night, and a wintry mix will move in early Sunday.

Saturday: Showers and Thunderstorms. Potentially Severe in parts of the area.
Highs: Mid 50s
Winds: E 15-20, Gusts Near 35 mph

Sunday: Rain/mix early, then decreasing clouds

Highs: Low 50s

Winds: NW 15-30 mph