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Here's the scoop, there is a marginal (low) risk for severe weather Sunday night and Monday evening. While the chances remain low for now, there is a lot more going on in this weather story than just severe chances.
The weather conditions Saturday felt very fall like, with a high temp near 70 degrees, low humidity with a dew point at 48, and some intermittent clouds. Prepare for a roller coaster, because this is all about to change fast.
As the seasons first winter storm blasts the western states of Montana and Idaho, the other side of this system will begin quickly forcing moisture and warmer air from the south into our area beginning Saturday night through Monday. This manifests as a warm front that will push north from Iowa into northern Minnesota on Sunday, which will keep the whole area cloudy. With this passage, moisture increases as dew points swiftly rise from near 50 to near 70. Winds will turn towards out of the south to aid the incoming warm front. Sunday's overnight low will be a summer like 68 degrees.
With all this new found energy in the moisture and temperatures of the air Sunday night, some strong storms have the chance to develop. For now, the main corridor of development seems to be aimed to our west where southerly winds will be stronger. The Storm Prediction center sees this, and has designated Western MN and IA in an area of slight risk. For us here further east on the MN-IA border, we find ourselves on the edge of an area of marginal risk. So while the possibility of severe weather is quite low, an isolated thunderstorm that could pop off will have the potential to become severe.
On Monday, the heat really turns up. With a daily high of 82 degrees and dew points near 70, it will be another summer-like day. There is a lot of energy here for severe storms to occur. However, there is considerable uncertainty in how the wind in the atmosphere will be oriented at this time. This wind orientation greatly influences severe chances, so for now all we can do is watch and see how the wind forecast evolves.
A cold front will push through Tuesday, bring widespread rain and clouds, and cool temperatures back into the 60s.