StormTeam3: Marginal chance for severe weather Sunday and Monday

A low chance for severe weather Sunday and Monday night before a big cool down.

Posted: Sep 28, 2019 7:11 PM
Updated: Sep 28, 2019 7:11 PM

Here's the scoop, there is a marginal (low) risk for severe weather Sunday night and Monday evening. While the chances remain low for now, there is a lot more going on in this weather story than just severe chances.

The weather conditions Saturday felt very fall like, with a high temp near 70 degrees, low humidity with a dew point at 48, and some intermittent clouds. Prepare for a roller coaster, because this is all about to change fast.

As the seasons first winter storm blasts the western states of Montana and Idaho, the other side of this system will begin quickly forcing moisture and warmer air from the south into our area beginning Saturday night through Monday. This manifests as a warm front that will push north from Iowa into northern Minnesota on Sunday, which will keep the whole area cloudy. With this passage, moisture increases as dew points swiftly rise from near 50 to near 70. Winds will turn towards out of the south to aid the incoming warm front. Sunday's overnight low will be a summer like 68 degrees.

With all this new found energy in the moisture and temperatures of the air Sunday night, some strong storms have the chance to develop. For now, the main corridor of development seems to be aimed to our west where southerly winds will be stronger. The Storm Prediction center sees this, and has designated Western MN and IA in an area of slight risk. For us here further east on the MN-IA border, we find ourselves on the edge of an area of marginal risk. So while the possibility of severe weather is quite low, an isolated thunderstorm that could pop off will have the potential to become severe.

On Monday, the heat really turns up. With a daily high of 82 degrees and dew points near 70, it will be another summer-like day. There is a lot of energy here for severe storms to occur. However, there is considerable uncertainty in how the wind in the atmosphere will be oriented at this time. This wind orientation greatly influences severe chances, so for now all we can do is watch and see how the wind forecast evolves.

A cold front will push through Tuesday, bring widespread rain and clouds, and cool temperatures back into the 60s.

Minnesota Coronavirus Cases

Data is updated nightly.

Confirmed Cases: 96734

Reported Deaths: 2060
CountyConfirmedDeaths
Hennepin27177931
Ramsey10985320
Dakota7585126
Anoka6182135
Stearns404524
Washington384155
Scott260333
Olmsted247328
Nobles197516
Blue Earth17146
Wright16647
St. Louis161841
Carver14297
Clay141140
Rice13438
Mower13365
Sherburne116114
Kandiyohi10262
Winona90618
Lyon7134
Waseca6898
Benton5583
Steele5532
Freeborn5444
Nicollet54217
Crow Wing53318
Watonwan5304
Chisago5071
Todd5022
McLeod4942
Le Sueur4724
Otter Tail4454
Beltrami4405
Martin42610
Goodhue3769
Itasca33914
Pine3360
Douglas3262
Polk3164
Isanti3071
Becker2802
Carlton2711
Morrison2642
Dodge2480
Pipestone23010
Cottonwood2270
Chippewa2191
Meeker2072
Wabasha2010
Brown1952
Sibley1953
Yellow Medicine1872
Cass1824
Unassigned18052
Rock1760
Murray1702
Redwood1703
Mille Lacs1653
Renville1568
Jackson1501
Faribault1460
Swift1421
Houston1270
Kanabec1268
Roseau1240
Fillmore1230
Koochiching1233
Pennington1201
Lincoln1150
Hubbard1111
Stevens1051
Pope980
Big Stone830
Aitkin811
Wadena690
Wilkin663
Grant624
Lac qui Parle601
Lake590
Marshall531
Norman530
Mahnomen481
Red Lake451
Traverse310
Clearwater280
Lake of the Woods231
Kittson120
Cook60

Iowa Coronavirus Cases

Data is updated nightly.

Confirmed Cases: 86239

Reported Deaths: 1307
CountyConfirmedDeaths
Polk15962262
Woodbury550964
Johnson514727
Black Hawk450090
Linn4078112
Story345317
Dubuque328341
Scott302028
Dallas279838
Pottawattamie214139
Buena Vista199212
Marshall179034
Sioux16463
Wapello133457
Webster127214
Plymouth115521
Clinton112421
Muscatine111155
Crawford10915
Cerro Gordo105821
Warren9656
Jasper84532
Des Moines7978
Marion7637
Henry7464
Tama73231
Carroll6745
Lee6397
Wright5921
Dickinson5286
Boone5118
Bremer4957
Washington46611
Louisa42915
Delaware4103
Mahaska41019
Floyd3523
Franklin35018
Jackson3503
Winneshiek3396
Lyon3324
Clay3284
Hamilton3273
Benton3241
Winnebago31513
Hardin3041
Poweshiek3048
Buchanan2851
Jones2763
Kossuth2740
Butler2712
Shelby2671
Clarke2663
Emmet26510
Allamakee2646
Clayton2613
Chickasaw2570
Sac2570
Cherokee2512
Cedar2501
Guthrie2456
Harrison2413
Fayette2272
Grundy2233
Madison2232
Iowa2131
Palo Alto2030
Mitchell1910
Howard1906
Humboldt1903
Hancock1882
Calhoun1853
Mills1811
Page1700
Cass1692
Osceola1680
Pocahontas1632
Monroe15911
Monona1571
Lucas1566
Appanoose1393
Jefferson1391
Union1373
Taylor1311
Davis1274
Fremont1220
Ida1221
Van Buren1141
Keokuk1091
Worth1080
Greene1010
Montgomery975
Wayne872
Audubon821
Adair721
Decatur670
Ringgold522
Adams330
Unassigned230
Rochester
Overcast
47° wxIcon
Hi: 57° Lo: 44°
Feels Like: 43°
Mason City
Overcast
48° wxIcon
Hi: 58° Lo: 43°
Feels Like: 43°
Albert Lea
Scattered Clouds
46° wxIcon
Hi: 56° Lo: 45°
Feels Like: 46°
Austin
Overcast
48° wxIcon
Hi: 57° Lo: 45°
Feels Like: 46°
Charles City
Scattered Clouds
45° wxIcon
Hi: 58° Lo: 44°
Feels Like: 41°
Much Cooler Week Ahead
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