StormTeam3: Marginal chance for severe weather Sunday and Monday

A low chance for severe weather Sunday and Monday night before a big cool down.

Posted: Sep 28, 2019 7:11 PM
Updated: Sep 28, 2019 7:11 PM

Here's the scoop, there is a marginal (low) risk for severe weather Sunday night and Monday evening. While the chances remain low for now, there is a lot more going on in this weather story than just severe chances.

The weather conditions Saturday felt very fall like, with a high temp near 70 degrees, low humidity with a dew point at 48, and some intermittent clouds. Prepare for a roller coaster, because this is all about to change fast.

As the seasons first winter storm blasts the western states of Montana and Idaho, the other side of this system will begin quickly forcing moisture and warmer air from the south into our area beginning Saturday night through Monday. This manifests as a warm front that will push north from Iowa into northern Minnesota on Sunday, which will keep the whole area cloudy. With this passage, moisture increases as dew points swiftly rise from near 50 to near 70. Winds will turn towards out of the south to aid the incoming warm front. Sunday's overnight low will be a summer like 68 degrees.

With all this new found energy in the moisture and temperatures of the air Sunday night, some strong storms have the chance to develop. For now, the main corridor of development seems to be aimed to our west where southerly winds will be stronger. The Storm Prediction center sees this, and has designated Western MN and IA in an area of slight risk. For us here further east on the MN-IA border, we find ourselves on the edge of an area of marginal risk. So while the possibility of severe weather is quite low, an isolated thunderstorm that could pop off will have the potential to become severe.

On Monday, the heat really turns up. With a daily high of 82 degrees and dew points near 70, it will be another summer-like day. There is a lot of energy here for severe storms to occur. However, there is considerable uncertainty in how the wind in the atmosphere will be oriented at this time. This wind orientation greatly influences severe chances, so for now all we can do is watch and see how the wind forecast evolves.

A cold front will push through Tuesday, bring widespread rain and clouds, and cool temperatures back into the 60s.

Minnesota Coronavirus Cases

Data is updated nightly.

Cases: 891099

Reported Deaths: 9406
CountyCasesDeaths
Hennepin1743652015
Ramsey720081036
Dakota65596566
Anoka62204564
Washington39195354
Stearns32672274
St. Louis28594394
Wright25235206
Scott25213181
Olmsted21580127
Sherburne18406126
Carver1620266
Clay11865102
Blue Earth1121766
Rice11172138
Crow Wing10954121
Chisago970675
Kandiyohi9612106
Otter Tail9568124
Benton8767123
Beltrami798592
Goodhue781495
Douglas7642100
Itasca748694
Mower720247
Winona699856
McLeod692983
Isanti678383
Steele666030
Morrison661678
Becker617472
Polk589184
Freeborn548845
Carlton525973
Nobles521254
Lyon517261
Mille Lacs513272
Nicollet507559
Pine498041
Cass490252
Todd480942
Brown463457
Le Sueur443633
Meeker421057
Martin375943
Waseca364232
Wabasha363710
Hubbard348248
Dodge347611
Roseau307631
Fillmore297015
Wadena296239
Redwood276545
Houston264817
Renville263151
Faribault252431
Sibley246117
Pennington245629
Kanabec240834
Cottonwood224132
Aitkin215350
Chippewa215141
Pope201210
Watonwan193720
Yellow Medicine184721
Rock174328
Swift168522
Koochiching165323
Stevens163111
Jackson159016
Clearwater155120
Murray150611
Marshall150521
Pipestone147729
Lake129224
Lac qui Parle119425
Wilkin119015
Mahnomen104514
Norman10299
Grant9679
Big Stone9305
Lincoln8665
Kittson71223
Red Lake70410
Traverse5986
Unassigned550124
Lake of the Woods5235
Cook3000

Iowa Coronavirus Cases

Data is updated nightly.

Cases: 516453

Reported Deaths: 7289
CountyCasesDeaths
Polk80319799
Linn32142424
Scott26637292
Black Hawk21974378
Woodbury20490258
Johnson19778105
Dubuque18515241
Pottawattamie15890213
Dallas15320113
Story1380258
Warren8450104
Cerro Gordo7964123
Clinton7725114
Webster7326122
Des Moines7098105
Marshall669093
Muscatine6645117
Wapello6441144
Jasper619591
Sioux610177
Lee5908105
Marion557897
Buena Vista502149
Plymouth488388
Henry418655
Benton404859
Jones404862
Bremer395372
Washington391463
Boone389739
Carroll367755
Mahaska365365
Crawford353747
Dickinson314655
Jackson307747
Buchanan305741
Clay295536
Delaware294654
Kossuth289077
Fayette286353
Hardin284353
Tama279777
Page272533
Wright266149
Cedar265527
Hamilton259857
Winneshiek258143
Floyd255449
Clayton244459
Poweshiek237243
Madison234525
Harrison234379
Cass233466
Butler232744
Iowa229634
Jefferson223043
Mills220930
Winnebago215938
Hancock214639
Cherokee211347
Lyon206142
Appanoose205357
Allamakee203955
Calhoun196919
Shelby196442
Union191141
Humboldt185130
Grundy183637
Franklin183029
Mitchell182043
Chickasaw178922
Emmet178246
Louisa176953
Sac171026
Guthrie168137
Montgomery161745
Clarke160829
Keokuk150839
Palo Alto150532
Howard146824
Monroe142739
Ida130141
Greene127517
Davis124625
Lucas124426
Monona122939
Worth12139
Pocahontas120724
Adair114337
Osceola104818
Decatur101913
Taylor98514
Fremont95913
Van Buren93222
Wayne84525
Ringgold76729
Audubon74917
Adams5748
Unassigned480
Rochester
Clear
31° wxIcon
Hi: 32° Lo: 12°
Feels Like: 22°
Mason City
Cloudy
33° wxIcon
Hi: 35° Lo: 12°
Feels Like: 25°
Albert Lea
Partly Cloudy
32° wxIcon
Hi: 34° Lo: 11°
Feels Like: 25°
Austin
Partly Cloudy
34° wxIcon
Hi: 34° Lo: 13°
Feels Like: 30°
Charles City
Cloudy
32° wxIcon
Hi: 34° Lo: 11°
Feels Like: 24°
Mild heading into the weekend
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