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Well this is it folks, Saturday's cold front will push summer like weather conditions out, and usher in the beginning of fall for the area.
Unfortunately, it also looks like it could usher in a round of severe weather.
The Iowa-Minnesota state border and the area surrounding it is currently under a marginal risk (low risk) for severe weather from the Storm Prediction Center for Saturday evening. The main threats here are large hail, gusty winds, and flash flooding linked to heavy rainfall. Much of the soil in the area is still saturated from storms over recent weeks, enhancing the risk for flash flooding.
There is plenty of energy in the atmosphere for storms to fire off. With Friday's high temperatures into the mid 80s, and dew points near and above 70 degrees, it goes to show how these summer like conditions are really so conducive to severe weather events.
Some storms will fire off Saturday late morning, but these will be scattered and non-severe. In the evening hours ahead of the cold front, rain will start to develop throughout the area. If cloud cover Saturday is thick enough however, this will limit instability in the atmosphere and dampen the threat of severe weather. As of now, this looks to be the case for our area. Areas with clearer skies and even more moisture such as in central Iowa and Southern Wisconsin are at a greater risk for heavy rain based on our computer models.
We are tracking this system as it evolves.