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StormTeam3: Everything concerning Saturday's severe weather chance

Uncertainty remains in the forecast for storms tonight. Will they even develop? Or will it be another rain out?

Posted: Sep 14, 2019 1:23 PM

After a wild week of severe weather, the "fun" may not be over. There exists one more chance for storms this afternoon and tonight, but the question of whether they will be severe - or even occur at all - remains annoyingly murky.

The Storm Prediction Center has maintained a level of 'marginal' risk for severe weather for the area Saturday. An active weather pattern will allow for the ingredients for storms to pop. Let's dive into it...

THE SETUP

As of noon Saturday, a warm front - cold front pair was approaching the Minnesota-Iowa border from the west, with a surface low pressure system having formed where they meet. Behind and along the warm front is also much more humid air that is favorable for thunderstorm development. A line of severe storms, heading due east, was developing along this front in central Iowa. 

Later this afternoon, upper level winds will be favorable for the development of supercell thunderstorms as the warm front passes. Supercells are rotating thunderstorms capable of producing heavy rain, large hail, and tornadoes. The possibility of supercell development remains the primary severe threat on Saturday. 

WHAT THIS MEANS

These central Iowa thunderstorms were not well forecast yesterday, and are likely eating up some of the moisture that was expected to reach the MN-IA border Saturday night. Comparing two different computer model outcomes at the same time Saturday night, one (HRRR, left) which shows the central Iowan storms and one (NAM3K, right) which does not, we can see that severe storms did not develop in the model that had the Iowa storms right. Using this, we can assume that the severe threat this evening has decreased.

However, there still remains uncertainty in how much moisture could make it to the MN-IA border, so severe storms are still possible, especially if even one thunderstorm can ramp up and fledge into a supercell.

Should storms develop tonight, there is a chance for large hail, an isolated tornado, and heavy rains. Much of the areas soil is still saturated from the past week of rain, and any significant rain could result in flooding.

We are continuing to track this storm.

Minnesota Coronavirus Cases

Data is updated nightly.

Confirmed Cases: 124439

Reported Deaths: 2292
CountyConfirmedDeaths
Hennepin32336965
Ramsey13342347
Dakota9251133
Anoka8093148
Stearns537035
Washington525967
Scott318534
Olmsted307029
St. Louis264763
Wright227614
Nobles214016
Clay203243
Blue Earth19707
Carver16957
Rice15789
Sherburne156221
Kandiyohi15494
Mower148912
Winona118918
Lyon9256
Waseca9129
Crow Wing87921
Chisago8552
Benton8415
Beltrami7687
Otter Tail7436
Todd7232
Steele7212
Itasca67617
Nicollet67317
Freeborn6324
Morrison6076
Douglas6043
Martin58616
Le Sueur5855
McLeod5703
Watonwan5674
Goodhue51111
Pine5090
Polk4924
Becker4893
Isanti4873
Chippewa3793
Carlton3781
Dodge3620
Mille Lacs3528
Pipestone32616
Wabasha3230
Cass3115
Hubbard3092
Meeker3073
Brown2983
Rock2971
Unassigned26553
Yellow Medicine2655
Cottonwood2620
Redwood25011
Murray2483
Fillmore2380
Sibley2383
Renville22911
Faribault2090
Jackson1951
Roseau1930
Swift1921
Wadena1880
Kanabec18610
Houston1811
Stevens1681
Lincoln1650
Pennington1631
Koochiching1624
Aitkin1542
Pope1480
Big Stone1270
Wilkin1244
Lac qui Parle1232
Lake1030
Mahnomen941
Norman940
Grant894
Marshall871
Clearwater760
Red Lake602
Traverse530
Lake of the Woods421
Kittson270
Cook110

Iowa Coronavirus Cases

Data is updated nightly.

Confirmed Cases: 107481

Reported Deaths: 1537
CountyConfirmedDeaths
Polk17984282
Woodbury682088
Johnson563830
Black Hawk519196
Linn5047126
Dubuque467952
Scott404134
Story385317
Dallas329143
Pottawattamie295644
Sioux229712
Buena Vista220012
Marshall192636
Webster170014
Plymouth153925
Wapello147162
Clinton135525
Muscatine133958
Crawford130912
Cerro Gordo124923
Des Moines12139
Warren11496
Carroll10288
Jasper102034
Henry9785
Marion92410
Tama90037
Lee8719
Wright6871
Dickinson6847
Delaware6798
Boone6778
Mahaska61422
Bremer6128
Washington61011
Harrison5768
Jackson5283
Lyon5147
Benton5031
Louisa49115
Clay4844
Hamilton4433
Winnebago43716
Winneshiek4339
Hardin4285
Poweshiek42811
Kossuth4220
Floyd41511
Jones4113
Emmet39914
Buchanan3933
Cedar3855
Iowa3776
Franklin37318
Guthrie36914
Cherokee3652
Sac3643
Clayton3503
Page3470
Butler3442
Shelby3441
Madison3432
Fayette3412
Mills3361
Allamakee3278
Chickasaw3221
Clarke3123
Cass3052
Humboldt2913
Palo Alto2861
Hancock2814
Grundy2804
Calhoun2644
Osceola2480
Howard2479
Monroe23811
Mitchell2300
Monona2281
Taylor2202
Pocahontas2092
Union2094
Appanoose2013
Jefferson1901
Lucas1866
Fremont1781
Ida1772
Greene1730
Van Buren1572
Davis1554
Montgomery1555
Keokuk1401
Adair1331
Audubon1291
Decatur1290
Worth1270
Wayne1123
Ringgold822
Adams670
Unassigned190
Rochester
Overcast
32° wxIcon
Hi: 33° Lo: 31°
Feels Like: 24°
Mason City
Overcast
38° wxIcon
Hi: 40° Lo: 31°
Feels Like: 29°
Albert Lea
Overcast
36° wxIcon
Hi: 36° Lo: 30°
Feels Like: 29°
Austin
Overcast
37° wxIcon
Hi: 38° Lo: 31°
Feels Like: 30°
Charles City
Overcast
43° wxIcon
Hi: 43° Lo: 32°
Feels Like: 36°
Temps will rise before the weekend
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