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StormTeam3: Everything concerning Saturday's severe weather chance

Uncertainty remains in the forecast for storms tonight. Will they even develop? Or will it be another rain out?

Posted: Sep 14, 2019 1:23 PM

After a wild week of severe weather, the "fun" may not be over. There exists one more chance for storms this afternoon and tonight, but the question of whether they will be severe - or even occur at all - remains annoyingly murky.

The Storm Prediction Center has maintained a level of 'marginal' risk for severe weather for the area Saturday. An active weather pattern will allow for the ingredients for storms to pop. Let's dive into it...

THE SETUP

As of noon Saturday, a warm front - cold front pair was approaching the Minnesota-Iowa border from the west, with a surface low pressure system having formed where they meet. Behind and along the warm front is also much more humid air that is favorable for thunderstorm development. A line of severe storms, heading due east, was developing along this front in central Iowa. 

Later this afternoon, upper level winds will be favorable for the development of supercell thunderstorms as the warm front passes. Supercells are rotating thunderstorms capable of producing heavy rain, large hail, and tornadoes. The possibility of supercell development remains the primary severe threat on Saturday. 

WHAT THIS MEANS

These central Iowa thunderstorms were not well forecast yesterday, and are likely eating up some of the moisture that was expected to reach the MN-IA border Saturday night. Comparing two different computer model outcomes at the same time Saturday night, one (HRRR, left) which shows the central Iowan storms and one (NAM3K, right) which does not, we can see that severe storms did not develop in the model that had the Iowa storms right. Using this, we can assume that the severe threat this evening has decreased.

However, there still remains uncertainty in how much moisture could make it to the MN-IA border, so severe storms are still possible, especially if even one thunderstorm can ramp up and fledge into a supercell.

Should storms develop tonight, there is a chance for large hail, an isolated tornado, and heavy rains. Much of the areas soil is still saturated from the past week of rain, and any significant rain could result in flooding.

We are continuing to track this storm.

Minnesota Coronavirus Cases

Data is updated nightly.

Confirmed Cases: 61839

Reported Deaths: 1707
CountyConfirmedDeaths
Hennepin19569839
Ramsey7717268
Dakota4507106
Anoka3752115
Stearns290920
Washington216345
Nobles17686
Olmsted176723
Scott159020
Mower11052
Rice10388
Blue Earth9325
Wright8975
Carver8783
Clay78840
Sherburne7328
Kandiyohi7021
St. Louis57319
Todd4292
Lyon4253
Freeborn3601
Steele3512
Nicollet34713
Watonwan3230
Benton3203
Winona26416
Beltrami2440
Crow Wing23814
Le Sueur2261
Martin2095
Chisago2041
McLeod2020
Goodhue1999
Otter Tail1983
Cottonwood1780
Becker1611
Pipestone1589
Polk1554
Waseca1490
Itasca14612
Douglas1441
Carlton1420
Unassigned13141
Dodge1290
Isanti1290
Pine1290
Murray1241
Chippewa1071
Morrison931
Wabasha930
Brown892
Faribault890
Meeker872
Rock850
Sibley842
Koochiching793
Jackson790
Pennington751
Cass742
Mille Lacs723
Fillmore670
Renville665
Lincoln580
Grant563
Swift551
Yellow Medicine520
Roseau520
Pope480
Houston420
Aitkin411
Norman400
Kanabec371
Redwood360
Hubbard350
Wilkin343
Marshall290
Wadena270
Mahnomen271
Red Lake240
Big Stone220
Lake210
Stevens180
Clearwater140
Traverse110
Lac qui Parle80
Cook50
Lake of the Woods40
Kittson30

Iowa Coronavirus Cases

Data is updated nightly.

Confirmed Cases: 49380

Reported Deaths: 942
CountyConfirmedDeaths
Polk10444208
Woodbury373452
Black Hawk315766
Linn242888
Johnson211819
Dallas189835
Buena Vista179412
Scott174314
Dubuque169831
Marshall145026
Pottawattamie133228
Story117315
Wapello90533
Muscatine85148
Webster8268
Crawford7313
Sioux6433
Cerro Gordo63417
Warren5721
Tama55429
Jasper48127
Wright4751
Plymouth47011
Clinton4164
Dickinson3844
Louisa37814
Washington30510
Boone2623
Hamilton2511
Franklin24512
Bremer2307
Clarke2043
Clay2011
Carroll1942
Emmet1934
Des Moines1872
Shelby1861
Hardin1840
Marion1750
Poweshiek1608
Benton1601
Floyd1582
Allamakee1564
Jackson1561
Mahaska14217
Guthrie1355
Cedar1341
Jones1332
Buchanan1291
Henry1274
Madison1252
Butler1252
Hancock1212
Lee1183
Humboldt1181
Pocahontas1172
Delaware1171
Lyon1152
Harrison1101
Cherokee1101
Clayton1063
Taylor1000
Winneshiek971
Iowa971
Page950
Monona910
Kossuth900
Mills890
Palo Alto880
Jefferson870
Calhoun862
Winnebago860
Sac860
Fayette850
Osceola840
Grundy801
Mitchell790
Cass791
Union781
Monroe748
Lucas734
Worth670
Davis612
Montgomery604
Chickasaw550
Appanoose513
Howard500
Fremont430
Greene430
Keokuk371
Van Buren361
Ida310
Adair300
Audubon291
Decatur250
Ringgold231
Wayne201
Adams160
Unassigned10
Rochester
Clear
67° wxIcon
Hi: 69° Lo: 64°
Feels Like: 67°
Mason City
Clear
72° wxIcon
Hi: 82° Lo: 66°
Feels Like: 72°
Albert Lea
Clear
72° wxIcon
Hi: 77° Lo: 66°
Feels Like: 72°
Austin
Clear
70° wxIcon
Hi: 80° Lo: 66°
Feels Like: 70°
Charles City
Clear
72° wxIcon
Hi: 80° Lo: 66°
Feels Like: 72°
More rain chances to finish off the work week
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