StormTeam3: Timing out Monday's risk of severe storms

The passage of multiple fronts Monday along with increased humidity will allow for the possibility of severe weather.

Posted: Sep 8, 2019 5:24 PM
Updated: Sep 9, 2019 6:27 AM

The Storm Prediction Center in Norman, OK upgraded most of North Iowa and South Minnesota to a "Slight" risk of severe weather on Monday, a level 2 / 5 in how the agency designates severe weather threats. 

This comes following a weekend of cloudy, cool, and rainy conditions that allowed for the atmosphere to build up humidity. Warmer temperatures moving in on Monday, along with strong winds, will allow for more energy for storms to develop. 

Monday's primary severe threat are damaging winds, large hail, and even the chance for a few tornadoes.

We are going to time out tomorrow's severe weather threat for you here. Keep in mind there is some uncertainty in when exactly all these fronts pass, so the timing could change a bit. Stay tuned to KIMT for all the latest as we track this severe weather threat.


 
 
 
  • Setup Sunday night will allow for continued small showers and widespread clouds. A weak warm front is developing across Iowa.

 

 

 

  • By Monday morning, the weak warm front is moving through. Winds will be out of the south. Some stronger showers and even small storms will occur, but these will not be severe. Cloud cover clears as the front passes. 

    NOTE: Any lack of rain/clouds at this time will allow for daytime sunlight to heat up the ground, and will INCREASE severe threat later! Opposite is also true. Look for temperatures above around 72 degrees on Monday to know if severe threat has increased.

 

 

  • There will be some downtime in the hours following noon. However, another warm front - this one stronger and more defined - will be closing in from SW. Upper level winds will be kicking from WSW. With SSE winds at the surface, there's enough wind shear to sustain some supercells (spinning thunderstorms). A few tornadoes and occurrences of large hail possible. Heavy rain and wind likely. Again, the threat increases with more sunlight earlier in the day.

 

 

 

  • (A CLOSER LOOK) Looking at the picture on the right, this computer model (NAM3K) is overdoing how widespread the rain is. Radar tomorrow around 5pm will likely be a few isolated supercells throughout the area. These will be the main severe threat, and have the potential to produce large hail and damaging wind along with tornadoes. 

 

 

  • By early Monday evening. A low level jet will develop across Iowa and southern Minnesota. These strong winds out of the south will push the warm front through. All of this promotes continued storm activity through early Tuesday morning. Storms here could be better organized because of the low level jet.

 

 

 

  • (A CLOSER LOOK) By better organized, this means that some of then supercells could consolidate into larger bow segments, seen here between Winona and Decorah. With this, the threat for damaging wind increases. However, the tornado threat marginally decreases.

 

 

  • By Tuesday morning, a cold front will push through bringing one last round of storms. These are likely not to be severe. The low level jet will be weakening, and the instability in the atmosphere will be mostly exhausted at this point.


Minnesota Coronavirus Cases

Data is updated nightly.

Confirmed Cases: 26980

Reported Deaths: 1159
CountyConfirmedDeaths
Hennepin9099657
Ramsey3351149
Stearns205614
Nobles15775
Anoka152779
Dakota144664
Washington70035
Olmsted68911
Rice5243
Kandiyohi5141
Scott4712
Clay44930
Mower4462
Wright3492
Todd3441
Sherburne2492
Carver2402
Benton1853
Steele1700
Freeborn1590
Blue Earth1490
Martin1355
St. Louis11914
Lyon1012
Unassigned9611
Pine930
Nicollet8811
Cottonwood820
Winona8115
Crow Wing815
Watonwan790
Carlton750
Goodhue736
Otter Tail731
Chisago691
Polk632
Itasca5610
Dodge540
Chippewa521
Morrison480
Le Sueur471
Douglas460
Meeker460
Becker440
Jackson420
Murray410
McLeod410
Isanti360
Pennington300
Waseca290
Mille Lacs241
Rock230
Faribault220
Wabasha200
Swift191
Beltrami180
Sibley170
Brown172
Fillmore171
Norman150
Pipestone130
Kanabec121
Aitkin120
Marshall120
Cass112
Big Stone110
Wilkin113
Wadena100
Pope100
Koochiching90
Redwood70
Yellow Medicine70
Renville70
Mahnomen61
Lincoln60
Red Lake40
Traverse40
Grant40
Clearwater30
Houston30
Hubbard30
Lac qui Parle30
Roseau30
Stevens10
Lake10
Kittson10

Iowa Coronavirus Cases

Data is updated nightly.

Confirmed Cases: 21114

Reported Deaths: 593
CountyConfirmedDeaths
Polk4614140
Woodbury286137
Black Hawk178849
Buena Vista10672
Linn97879
Dallas95226
Marshall91418
Wapello63615
Johnson6198
Muscatine56741
Crawford5512
Tama41129
Scott38510
Dubuque35921
Louisa35011
Pottawattamie31910
Sioux3060
Jasper26917
Wright2210
Washington1968
Warren1671
Plymouth1522
Story1311
Allamakee1204
Mahaska9913
Poweshiek928
Hamilton760
Webster741
Henry732
Boone720
Bremer716
Clarke690
Des Moines681
Taylor660
Clinton651
Guthrie553
Cedar501
Benton431
Cherokee410
Monroe415
Jones370
Shelby370
Osceola360
Jefferson360
Marion350
Dickinson350
Buchanan341
Iowa340
Clayton343
Cerro Gordo331
Madison292
Lee290
Sac280
Davis280
Emmet270
Fayette270
Clay270
Monona260
Harrison260
Hardin240
Lyon240
Winneshiek240
Lucas222
Mills200
Grundy200
Franklin200
Humboldt201
Pocahontas200
Delaware191
Floyd191
Hancock180
Appanoose173
Butler161
Kossuth160
Carroll151
Ida150
Greene150
Keokuk140
Jackson140
Page140
Audubon131
Cass130
Chickasaw130
Howard120
Winnebago110
Calhoun100
Union100
Van Buren90
Adair90
Montgomery92
Adams70
Palo Alto70
Ringgold40
Fremont40
Mitchell40
Worth30
Unassigned20
Wayne10
Decatur10
Rochester
Clear
76° wxIcon
Hi: 79° Lo: 61°
Feels Like: 76°
Mason City
Clear
82° wxIcon
Hi: 82° Lo: 64°
Feels Like: 82°
Albert Lea
Clear
81° wxIcon
Hi: 81° Lo: 65°
Feels Like: 81°
Austin
Clear
81° wxIcon
Hi: 81° Lo: 65°
Feels Like: 81°
Charles City
Clear
81° wxIcon
Hi: 82° Lo: 62°
Feels Like: 81°
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