StormTeam3: A GAME OF TIMING. Severe weather threat for Monday.

The severity of thunderstorms tomorrow will depend on the time and strength of a first smaller round of storms.

Posted: Aug 4, 2019 8:15 PM

SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR MONDAY 8/5

On Monday, our spell of pristine summer-like weather comes to an end. A cold front will move through tomorrow afternoon from the Northwest, ushering in thunderstorms with a potential to be severe. The Storm Prediction Center out of Norman, OK has the entire area under a ‘Slight’ risk for severe weather, a level 2 / 5 in how the agency ranks the severity of storms.

Daily high temps tomorrow in the mid 80’s, along with an abundance of humidity shown in dew points near 70, will combine to create an atmosphere primed for severe weather. The question now remains as to the exact timing and orientation the storms tomorrow take, which will certainly play into how severe these storms really are.

Some small scattered showers can be expected in the morning hours of Monday as the front begins to approach. This round will not be severe. Another stronger round of storms will spring about just ahead of the front as it passes tomorrow. If the front induces thunderstorms around the mid-afternoon hours (3-6pm), then the chance of these storms being severe increases. These stronger storms will first form as a cluster of individual cells ahead of the front. Later in the afternoon, these cells will likely merge into a line of storms along the front. By the time this line of storms forms, the bulk of the system will most likely have moved into our Iowa counties.

The main hazards tomorrow will be large hail, heavy rain, and strong wind gusting near 50 mph. The wind hazard is even more applicable for when the storms take on a squall line appearance sometime in the late afternoon. As of now, it does appear that our Iowa counties will get the worst end of this round of storms. However, it wouldn't take much for this threat to be shifted slightly north. Tornadoes are unlikely, but a small one cannot be ruled out.

However, all of this is very much a game of timing. In one scenario, the first round of morning storms occurs earlier in the day and is weaker than expected, thereby limiting cloud cover during midday. Extra time for heating to occur from the sun will strengthen the second round of afternoon storms, and likely cause them to occur sooner than expected.

In scenario two, the first round of morning storms occurs closer to midday and is stronger than expected. This will severely hamper the amount of energy available for the second round of more concerning afternoon storms. A robust enough round of morning storms could even completely diminish any afternoon thunderstorm development.

Stay tuned to KIMT for all the latest as we track this storm.

Minnesota Coronavirus Cases

Data is updated nightly.

Confirmed Cases: 24190

Reported Deaths: 1036
CountyConfirmedDeaths
Hennepin8181606
Ramsey2863122
Stearns201413
Nobles15125
Anoka136370
Dakota126354
Washington61731
Olmsted60810
Kandiyohi4901
Rice4522
Clay42426
Scott4082
Todd3130
Wright3051
Mower3031
Sherburne2372
Carver2062
Benton1753
Steele1590
Blue Earth1380
Martin1295
St. Louis11814
Freeborn1150
Pine890
Nicollet8610
Unassigned8610
Winona7915
Carlton730
Watonwan710
Cottonwood700
Crow Wing682
Goodhue663
Otter Tail640
Chisago611
Polk612
Itasca5410
Dodge520
Chippewa491
Lyon490
Morrison450
Meeker450
Le Sueur441
Douglas410
Becker390
Jackson390
Murray390
McLeod340
Isanti320
Waseca260
Rock220
Mille Lacs191
Faribault180
Swift180
Wabasha180
Fillmore171
Pennington170
Sibley160
Brown152
Beltrami140
Cass132
Norman130
Pipestone120
Kanabec111
Wilkin113
Marshall100
Pope90
Wadena90
Aitkin80
Koochiching70
Yellow Medicine60
Mahnomen61
Lincoln50
Renville50
Big Stone40
Grant40
Red Lake40
Redwood40
Clearwater30
Hubbard30
Traverse30
Lac qui Parle30
Roseau30
Houston20
Lake10
Kittson10
Stevens10

Iowa Coronavirus Cases

Data is updated nightly.

Confirmed Cases: 19217

Reported Deaths: 531
CountyConfirmedDeaths
Polk4160125
Woodbury274034
Black Hawk173944
Linn94976
Dallas89220
Marshall89216
Buena Vista7350
Johnson6149
Wapello5589
Muscatine55641
Crawford5142
Tama40227
Scott35810
Dubuque34518
Louisa34311
Jasper26116
Pottawattamie2578
Sioux2190
Washington1888
Wright1670
Plymouth1292
Warren1260
Allamakee1204
Story1091
Mahaska9310
Poweshiek908
Henry711
Bremer696
Des Moines621
Clinton611
Boone610
Taylor540
Clarke530
Guthrie503
Cedar461
Benton411
Webster391
Monroe385
Shelby370
Jones360
Hamilton350
Clayton343
Iowa330
Buchanan330
Osceola330
Marion320
Cerro Gordo281
Cherokee280
Madison282
Fayette270
Lee250
Winneshiek240
Monona240
Jefferson230
Harrison220
Davis210
Lyon210
Dickinson200
Grundy200
Mills190
Floyd191
Sac180
Humboldt170
Lucas170
Hardin160
Hancock160
Delaware150
Keokuk150
Clay150
Appanoose153
Butler151
Emmet140
Ida140
Page130
Greene130
Franklin130
Cass120
Howard120
Audubon121
Jackson120
Winnebago110
Pocahontas110
Chickasaw100
Carroll90
Van Buren90
Adair90
Kossuth90
Union70
Adams70
Montgomery70
Palo Alto60
Unassigned60
Fremont40
Mitchell40
Ringgold40
Worth30
Calhoun20
Wayne10
Decatur10
Rochester
Clear
53° wxIcon
Hi: 66° Lo: 43°
Feels Like: 53°
Mason City
Clear
54° wxIcon
Hi: 71° Lo: 46°
Feels Like: 54°
Albert Lea
Clear
54° wxIcon
Hi: 69° Lo: 46°
Feels Like: 54°
Austin
Clear
55° wxIcon
Hi: 69° Lo: 47°
Feels Like: 55°
Charles City
Clear
55° wxIcon
Hi: 67° Lo: 46°
Feels Like: 55°
Sunnier skies for the weekend
KIMT Radar
KIMT Eye in the sky

Latest Video

Image

Rochester People's Rally

Image

Religious leaders call for justice for George Floyd

Image

Rochester downtown under curfew Saturday night

Image

Sean Weather 5/30

Image

Governor Walz GivesUpdate

Image

Gov. Walz Addresses Minnesotans in Overnight Press Conference

Image

Riots, Fires continue in Minneapolis

Image

Protesters in Downtown Rochester

Image

Mower County Fair will go on as planned

Image

Minneapolis Gas Stations Shut Down

Community Events