StormTeam3: A GAME OF TIMING. Severe weather threat for Monday.

The severity of thunderstorms tomorrow will depend on the time and strength of a first smaller round of storms.

Posted: Aug 4, 2019 8:15 PM

SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR MONDAY 8/5

On Monday, our spell of pristine summer-like weather comes to an end. A cold front will move through tomorrow afternoon from the Northwest, ushering in thunderstorms with a potential to be severe. The Storm Prediction Center out of Norman, OK has the entire area under a ‘Slight’ risk for severe weather, a level 2 / 5 in how the agency ranks the severity of storms.

Daily high temps tomorrow in the mid 80’s, along with an abundance of humidity shown in dew points near 70, will combine to create an atmosphere primed for severe weather. The question now remains as to the exact timing and orientation the storms tomorrow take, which will certainly play into how severe these storms really are.

Some small scattered showers can be expected in the morning hours of Monday as the front begins to approach. This round will not be severe. Another stronger round of storms will spring about just ahead of the front as it passes tomorrow. If the front induces thunderstorms around the mid-afternoon hours (3-6pm), then the chance of these storms being severe increases. These stronger storms will first form as a cluster of individual cells ahead of the front. Later in the afternoon, these cells will likely merge into a line of storms along the front. By the time this line of storms forms, the bulk of the system will most likely have moved into our Iowa counties.

The main hazards tomorrow will be large hail, heavy rain, and strong wind gusting near 50 mph. The wind hazard is even more applicable for when the storms take on a squall line appearance sometime in the late afternoon. As of now, it does appear that our Iowa counties will get the worst end of this round of storms. However, it wouldn't take much for this threat to be shifted slightly north. Tornadoes are unlikely, but a small one cannot be ruled out.

However, all of this is very much a game of timing. In one scenario, the first round of morning storms occurs earlier in the day and is weaker than expected, thereby limiting cloud cover during midday. Extra time for heating to occur from the sun will strengthen the second round of afternoon storms, and likely cause them to occur sooner than expected.

In scenario two, the first round of morning storms occurs closer to midday and is stronger than expected. This will severely hamper the amount of energy available for the second round of more concerning afternoon storms. A robust enough round of morning storms could even completely diminish any afternoon thunderstorm development.

Stay tuned to KIMT for all the latest as we track this storm.

Minnesota Coronavirus Cases

Data is updated nightly.

Cases: 604406

Reported Deaths: 7629
CountyCasesDeaths
Hennepin1249281777
Ramsey52501896
Dakota46829470
Anoka42767458
Washington27423291
Stearns22555224
St. Louis18138313
Scott17550135
Wright16374149
Olmsted13397102
Sherburne1201695
Carver1067248
Clay826092
Rice8200110
Blue Earth762544
Crow Wing681794
Kandiyohi667985
Chisago619852
Otter Tail585884
Benton582998
Goodhue483874
Douglas475481
Mower470633
Winona461351
Itasca459463
Isanti439964
McLeod430561
Morrison424862
Beltrami407861
Nobles407650
Steele397916
Polk389072
Becker386755
Lyon363853
Carlton352856
Freeborn346933
Pine335023
Nicollet331245
Mille Lacs311954
Brown307840
Le Sueur297326
Cass286132
Todd285633
Meeker263342
Waseca238023
Martin235332
Roseau211221
Wabasha20783
Hubbard196641
Dodge18783
Renville182446
Redwood176539
Houston174616
Cottonwood167124
Wadena163323
Fillmore157410
Faribault154719
Chippewa154038
Pennington153820
Kanabec146828
Sibley146810
Aitkin138937
Watonwan13579
Rock128719
Jackson122612
Pipestone116726
Yellow Medicine114920
Pope11306
Murray107110
Swift106918
Koochiching95417
Stevens92411
Clearwater89016
Marshall88817
Lake83220
Wilkin83213
Lac qui Parle75622
Big Stone6044
Grant5948
Lincoln5853
Mahnomen5669
Norman5479
Kittson49022
Unassigned48393
Red Lake4017
Traverse3775
Lake of the Woods3453
Cook1720

Iowa Coronavirus Cases

Data is updated nightly.

Cases: 371050

Reported Deaths: 6051
CountyCasesDeaths
Polk58259640
Linn21218339
Scott20307248
Black Hawk16139312
Woodbury15238230
Johnson1461985
Dubuque13509211
Dallas1128899
Pottawattamie11225174
Story1071448
Warren583891
Clinton561593
Cerro Gordo554093
Sioux517474
Webster515794
Muscatine4882106
Marshall486676
Des Moines467472
Wapello4338122
Buena Vista426940
Jasper421172
Plymouth403181
Lee382356
Marion366076
Jones300957
Henry294637
Bremer288461
Carroll286952
Boone268634
Crawford268440
Benton259855
Washington257251
Dickinson249344
Mahaska232651
Jackson225242
Clay216727
Kossuth216166
Tama211971
Delaware211143
Winneshiek198635
Page194522
Buchanan193833
Cedar192423
Hardin187444
Fayette186643
Wright186040
Hamilton181951
Harrison180073
Clayton171157
Butler166335
Madison164619
Mills163824
Floyd163442
Cherokee159338
Lyon158841
Poweshiek157036
Allamakee152952
Hancock150334
Iowa149824
Winnebago144531
Cass139255
Calhoun138913
Grundy137333
Emmet135841
Jefferson133435
Shelby131537
Sac130920
Union130035
Louisa129849
Appanoose129049
Mitchell126643
Chickasaw124817
Franklin123523
Guthrie123332
Humboldt119626
Palo Alto113623
Howard104922
Montgomery103638
Clarke100924
Keokuk96732
Monroe96431
Unassigned9560
Ida91535
Adair87332
Pocahontas85822
Davis85225
Monona82931
Osceola78916
Greene78011
Lucas77923
Worth7618
Taylor66812
Fremont6269
Decatur6169
Ringgold56424
Van Buren56418
Wayne54423
Audubon53411
Adams3444
Rochester
Cloudy
59° wxIcon
Hi: 81° Lo: 59°
Feels Like: 59°
Mason City
Cloudy
60° wxIcon
Hi: 82° Lo: 61°
Feels Like: 60°
Albert Lea
Cloudy
61° wxIcon
Hi: 81° Lo: 61°
Feels Like: 61°
Austin
Cloudy
63° wxIcon
Hi: 82° Lo: 61°
Feels Like: 63°
Charles City
Cloudy
63° wxIcon
Hi: 79° Lo: 62°
Feels Like: 63°
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