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StormTeam3: Storms Monday with a touch of flash flooding Tuesday

Conditions will briefly turn summer-like Monday before a cold front ushers in cooler weather and a prolonged rain event.

Posted: Sep 29, 2019 5:46 PM

A warm front was moving north through the area Sunday; warming temperatures, increasing the humidity, and creating widespread overcast clouds. On Monday, partly sunny conditions and the warm front will bring the high temperature to a summer like 84 degrees! And with dew points near 70, there will be plenty of fuel for storms to develop on this summer-like day. This won't last long however...

A cold front will move through from the NW Monday evening and let those storms pop. There is marginal risk, a low risk designation, for severe weather Monday evening according to the Storm Prediction Center. Winds in the upper atmosphere will not be that conducive to severe weather, so the risk of large hail and tornadoes is quite low. The bigger concern lies in the rain.

The cold front Monday will quickly slow to a near halt late Monday night into Tuesday morning. Thunderstorms Monday will transition into more prolonged, but less intense, rain showers on Tuesday. Mid-day Tuesday, this front will be hanging around in North Iowa. Stalling fronts can allow rain to continually drop in the same area for extended periods of time, posing a significant flooding threat. As such, Tuesday will be rainy for virtually the entire day with the occasional heavy downpour. 

The cold front will finally move on its way out by Wednesday morning and leave temperatures in the 50s in its wake, but the accumulated rainfall by this time could be excessive. From the Weather Prediction Center and various computer models, we could see widespread rainfall accumulations of 2+ inches. Most of this rain will fall on Tuesday, so there is risk for flash flooding. The rain event will extend from Southern MN into Central Iowa, and east into Wisconsin. 

We are tracking this front as it develops.

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Mason City
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