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While weather conditions this Labor Day weekend will remain fairly mild, the convergence of a few meteorological factors late Monday will tip things towards wild.
The Storm Prediction Center in Norman OK marked much of Minnesota for a ‘Slight’ risk of severe weather, a level two out of five, from Monday Afternoon into Tuesday. Northern Iowa has been marked as having a ‘Marginal’ risk, level one out of five.
Currently, a weak area of high pressure is controlling the skies. Winds are being kept light, and temperatures are being kept rather low in the low 70s upper 60s. This high pressure will start to back off Sunday. In its place, an area of lower pressure at the surface will begin to move in from Montana to the west on Monday. This low pressure will cause winds to stream from the south, bringing with them warmer and more humid air.
Alongside this, a series of disturbances in jet stream will pass over the area Monday and Tuesday. These disturbances, known as shortwaves, can sometimes be a conduit to increased thunderstorm activity as they help destabilize the atmosphere below them.
The shortwave will most likely strengthen the surface low pressure system a stark amount, to the point where the southerly winds will take on a strong low level jet.
Low level jets, common in this part of the country this time of year, can help spur severe weather activity.
In this case, given how this plays out, threats include strong winds, hail, and even tornadoes from late Monday into Tuesday.
We will be tracking this over the coming days.