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Cloudy skies blanketed much of the area today, leaving us with a fall-like day. Some small and scattered showers did occur, but much could not even reach the ground today as the lower atmosphere was far to dry. This changes on Sunday.
On Saturday night, light winds at the surface from the east were carrying very dry air. Just above these winds at the cloud layer, westerly winds were carrying significantly more moisture. This resulted in thick clouds blanketing the area, often appearing as waves in the atmosphere. While these winds will remain in place for Sunday, the moisture situation changes. By Saturday night, much of this moisture will up in the atmosphere will mix down to the surface, while a light low level jet from the south will feed even a bit more moisture.
All this new humidity will allow for more showers to develop on Sunday. Alongside this humidity, a passing disturbance in the jet stream Sunday will promote upward motion across the whole area, and will subsequently increase the rain potential. Rains on Sunday will be widespread light showers, shifting on and off throughout the day. Rainfall totals could be between 0.1-0.25 inches for much of the area Sunday. The rain will begin to subside in the evening hours between 7-10pm. Daily high temperatures on Sunday will struggle to reach even 65 degrees! Quite the cooler day.
On Monday, clouds will still be around in the morning, but will begin to move out gradually as temperatures begin to rise from a weak warm front. With all the moisture in the air from the weekend, and with high temperatures now breaking 70 degrees, there will be the potential for storms Monday evening, and lasting through even Thursday morning. The severe threat is rather low, but any extra sunlight during Monday, and thereby extra heat, could be enough to kick storms up a level. The Storm Prediction Center has parts of Iowa under a marginal threat for severe weather on Monday, a level 1/5. We are tracking this situation. For now, we have one and a half more cloudy and rainy days to get through.