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StormTeam3: Marginal chance for severe weather Saturday night

After almost a week straight of severe weather, the ride may not be over yet.

Posted: Sep 13, 2019 7:42 PM

The Storm Prediction Center in Norman, OK has placed much of Southern Minnesota and Northern Iowa in an area of 'Marginal' risk for severe weather, a level 1/5 alert, for Saturday afternoon and evening.

Saturday morning, a warm and cold front pair will begin moving through the area. The warm front will move in first and raise daily high temperatures Saturday to near 80 degrees, while increasing the moisture in the atmosphere with dew points in the 60s. The fronts will be joined somewhere in the Dakotas at this time, and the point where they meet will be favorable for the development of an area of low pressure. 

The cold front will move in later that night and spur the development of storms should there be enough instability in the atmosphere.

There is quite a lot of uncertainty in this forecast. Computer models Friday afternoon were in stark disagreement as to the outcome Saturday night (seen below). This is because slight deviations in how strong the developing area of low pressure will be, and also just how much moisture will be available tomorrow afternoon, will mean the difference between storms developing or not.

The main threats Saturday night, if storms do develop, will be for damaging wind and large hail. There is a chance for tornadoes in the general vicinity of where the cold and warm fronts meet when/if storms begin.

We are tracking all the changes to this forecast as time progresses.

Article Comments

Mason City
Overcast
20° wxIcon
Hi: 23° Lo: 17°
Feels Like: 11°
Albert Lea
Overcast
19° wxIcon
Hi: 22° Lo: 16°
Feels Like: 13°
Austin
Overcast
23° wxIcon
Hi: 24° Lo: 17°
Feels Like: 17°
Charles City
Overcast
21° wxIcon
Hi: 23° Lo: 15°
Feels Like: 21°
Rochester
Overcast
19° wxIcon
Hi: 22° Lo: 12°
Feels Like: 19°
Light snow/mix this morning could make for a slick commute
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