StormTeam3: Marginal chance for severe weather Saturday night

After almost a week straight of severe weather, the ride may not be over yet.

Posted: Sep 13, 2019 7:42 PM

The Storm Prediction Center in Norman, OK has placed much of Southern Minnesota and Northern Iowa in an area of 'Marginal' risk for severe weather, a level 1/5 alert, for Saturday afternoon and evening.

Saturday morning, a warm and cold front pair will begin moving through the area. The warm front will move in first and raise daily high temperatures Saturday to near 80 degrees, while increasing the moisture in the atmosphere with dew points in the 60s. The fronts will be joined somewhere in the Dakotas at this time, and the point where they meet will be favorable for the development of an area of low pressure. 

The cold front will move in later that night and spur the development of storms should there be enough instability in the atmosphere.

There is quite a lot of uncertainty in this forecast. Computer models Friday afternoon were in stark disagreement as to the outcome Saturday night (seen below). This is because slight deviations in how strong the developing area of low pressure will be, and also just how much moisture will be available tomorrow afternoon, will mean the difference between storms developing or not.

The main threats Saturday night, if storms do develop, will be for damaging wind and large hail. There is a chance for tornadoes in the general vicinity of where the cold and warm fronts meet when/if storms begin.

We are tracking all the changes to this forecast as time progresses.

Article Comments

Mason City
Clear
wxIcon
Hi: 10° Lo: -1°
Feels Like: -11°
Albert Lea
Clear
wxIcon
Hi: 6° Lo: -6°
Feels Like: -12°
Austin
Clear
wxIcon
Hi: 11° Lo: -5°
Feels Like: -9°
Charles City
Few Clouds
10° wxIcon
Hi: 12° Lo: 2°
Feels Like: -8°
Rochester
Overcast
wxIcon
Hi: 5° Lo: -7°
Feels Like: -12°
Coldest air of the season has arrived
KIMT Radar
KIMT Eye in the sky

Latest Video

Image

Clear Lake set to form alternative school on campus

Image

Authorities rescue man from Winnebago River

Image

Man taken to ambulance after being rescued

Image

Salvation Army opens it's doors for Rochester's homeless

Image

Snow storm causes several crashes in Minnesota

Image

Sara's Daybreak Forecast - Tuesday

Image

Iowa DOT talks how 511 gets updated

Image

Ping Pong Prodigy

Image

Elton Hills Drive safety session

Image

Williams shines as Dover-Eyota defeats Byron

Community Events