Don't be fooled, just because Sunday has been mostly cloudy like a fall or winter day doesn't mean the chance for severe weather has disappeared.
The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) in Norman, Oklahoma has upgraded our area to a level 1 out 5 for severe weather, a level of "marginal risk", on Monday. This comes as an upper level disturbance in the jet stream will induce instability in the atmosphere to the point where storms can develop. Concurrent to this, increasing moisture from the south today and tomorrow will give the atmosphere the energy it needs to kick up some storms.
Despite this designation from the SPC, the severe potential will be dependent on early day cloud cover. We can expect clouds to remain in the area come Monday morning. If they are more abundant or thicker than forecasted, that will be enough to keep surface temperatures cool and reduce instability, and thus the severe potential. On the flipside, if cloud cover alleviates a bit, extra daytime heating will increase the severe threat. Below is one of our computer models, the RPM, showing cloud cover at 10:30AM Monday, and then only a weak line of storms come 5:30PM.
This forecast is certainly believable. However, another one of our computer models, the HRRR, has less cloud cover early in the day, and shows stronger storms, potentially severe, rolling through the same time Monday afternoon as seen below.
We will have to watch for just how much cloud cover we will get Monday morning, as this will be the main factor in determining our severe threat. If severe storms do occur, the main threats will be small hail, damaging winds, and heavy rain.
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