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A mostly cloudy Monday will be followed by a mostly cloudy Tuesday, only difference is Tuesday will also be accompanied by a chance for some stormy weather.
Surface low pressure attached to a cold front will work into the area Tuesday, and bring more unsettled weather into the area. Clouds will cover the skies most of Thursday as the low pressure moves through. Chances for rain and storms increase towards around noon, when storms are expected to be scattered. Storms are expected to be rather isolated towards Tuesday afternoon, but ample wind shear in the atmosphere could allow some of these pop up storms to become more organized.
The severe outlook on Tuesday is really one of two ingredients; energy and wind shear. There shouldn't be a whole lot of potential storm energy available in the atmosphere Tuesday, with high temps only holding in the upper 70s. There will however be plenty of wind shear (change in winds with height) available to allow storms to breathe and grow. Best chance seems to be for some scattered showers mixed in with some isolated strong storms capable of small hail, gusty winds, and heavy downpours.
The storm prediction center has most of the area east of I-35 under a MARGINAL RISK (1/5) for severe weather. This means that there is only a chance for an isolated severe storm in the afternoon should it claim enough organization. The limiting factor to greater severe chances here again comes down to available energy. Should the sun peak out anytime tomorrow, that will increase the available energy for storms and subsequently the severe chances.
We are continuing to track this forecast.