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The weather has certainly felt fall-like for the past week. And because of persistent high pressure over the Great Lakes, this fall weather will continue for the most part. However, winds out of the south are beginning to bring some moisture into our area. With this increased moisture comes an increased chance of storms. And so, we are tracking a chance for storms Sunday night through Monday.
On Sunday, an upper level disturbance in the jet stream will grow and dip all the way down to Missouri, where the majority of this system's energy will be. For us in Southern Minnesota and Northern Iowa, this disturbance will pack less of a punch on Sunday night with only a 20% chance for small scattered showers and storms.
Storm chances increase even more on Monday, when the energy associated with Sunday's disturbance will help create a cold front that will swing through the area from the WNW.
For Monday's severe potential, the Storm Prediction Center in Norman, OK has marked us right on the edge of an area at a "Marginal" risk for severe weather. The main threats here should this verify will be strong winds and heavy rainfall. All this said, the severe threat still remains fairly low. The rest of Monday will be rather cloudy, with the daily high temperature reaching the mid 70's.
For the rest of the week ahead and the rest of August, weather conditions will continue to feel fall-like. Areas of high pressure will move back and forth throughout the upper midwest, limiting cloud cover while also working to keep conditions cooler and drier than normal. The Climate Prediction Center has forecasted exactly this in its 6-10 and 8-14 day climate outlooks in both temperature and precipitation. This may come as unfortunate news for farmers hoping for some end of the season rainfall.