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ONE MORE WARM "FALL LIKE" DAY
Wednesday begins with some clouds across the area, but clouds clear somewhat in the afternoon as temps rise very comfortably into the mid-40s. This is around 20 degrees above the average for this time of year. A fantastic day to get outdoors, especially considering the weather that's on it's way...
A WINTRY MIX FOR THURSDAY MORNING
The weather begins as a cold front moves across our area early Thursday morning with scattered rain/snow/ice all a possibility as temps meander around 32 degrees. There is a potential for some slick spots Thursday morning, especially if precipitation is more so ice and snow. This line of scattered precipitation slowly moves towards the Mississippi River by noon as it cools entirely into snow.
More sporadic snow showers are possible throughout the rest of the day Thursday. It does look like there will be some sort of break in the precip at some point Thursday afternoon or evening.
SNOW CONTINUES FRIDAY
Snow will continue to fall throughout the day Friday as the low pressure center of the storm hangs out somewhere nearby. How much snow we see is dependent on exactly where the center ends up. As of Wednesday morning, it seems the center ends up near La Crosse, Wisconsin. This would push some heavier snowfall totals above 6 inches and strong winds into areas along and west of I-35 like Albert Lea, Forest City, and Owatonna. Keep in mind, any change in where this center ends up will change snowfall amounts. A center setting up slightly further to the east, say near Madison, Wisconsin, would push totals and winds up. Whereas a center overhead our area decreases the severity of both.
For now, 4-6" seems like a good bet by early Saturday morning when snow ends, with 1-2" being the absolute lower bound of possible scenarios for most of us. We can generally expect more snow further west and north. This puts Owatonna at more of a risk than Charles City.
Taking a look at computer models. There is decent agreement for a large swath of totals above 6 inches somewhere in Minnesota. High -resolution models, which work a bit differently, will begin to run far enough out to lend us a new picture of the storm by late Wednesday.
(This hi-res model does not yet go far enough out to paint a decent picture)