Dry air to the north and moist air to the south continue their battle over our area Thursday, all while a wave of scattered showers heads in from the west. The "good" news? The aforementioned western showers will continue to weaken as they approach the Mississippi, but that doesn't mean we'll all leave the day on a dry note. Isolated chances for showers and storms move through this afternoon and evening, the overnight looks much drier.
Of course, today's rain threats fail in comparison to this weekend's. So...let's get to it! The set-up remains complex but over the last several hours a bit more clarity has come our way. From the south, a moist (and rather unstable) air mass will move in Friday night into Saturday. As it does, this will begin firing off storms. The main threat during this time would be the formation of large, damaging hail and heavy rainfall rates. Saturday will be the day to watch when it comes to severe development. That being said, models are STILL disagreeing when it comes to the potential for convection (one of the primary forces when it comes to storm development). A lot of this storm activity will be heavily dependant on a warm front heading in along the moisture, thus why Saturday needs to be watched.
To go along with the severe potential, heavy rain is another big concern. Heavy rain + already saturated areas = a flood threat. Even if storms do not completely develop, clouds will be heavily saturated and ready to drop buckets of rainfall.
Whew! So...what can you do to prepare for hte weather now? Keep with us! Your StormTeam is tracking all the changing models, patterns, and working together to share with you the most accurate timing and threats associated with this complex set-up.