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The atmosphere likes to fool us from time to time with perfect set-ups and a lack of results... as for today, it happens to be another tricky forecast. The main focus is the risk for storm coming into the late evening and overnight hours of Saturday and through Sunday. As of now, storms have begun to fire off across parts of southern Iowa, northeastern Nebraska, and southeastern South Dakota. Some of these storms have gone severe, but nothing has popped so far in our area. Stubborn dry air is helping us out for the time being, but a rapidly approaching moisture transport and warming front is headed in from the south southwest.
Cloud cover through today has also helped keep things a little more stable over us - but this looks to change tonight. Showers and storms are likely tonight and into Sunday morning but the question is, will they become severe? We currently sit in a marginal to slight risk for severe development and the factors are certainly in play. That being said, if storms pop they'll be capable of producing heavy localized rainfall and damaging hail. The tornado threat has minimized but cannot be completely ruled out.