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A major and messy winter storm will rage across parts of the Midwest Monday and Tuesday, particularly to our south in central Iowa, but some of this could clip our area.
First, here is how today plays out.
Monday will be a mix of sun and clouds. Dry air in central Minnesota will keep skies more clear during the middle of the day in Southern Minnesota, but clouds will likely hang on just over the border in Northern Iowa as the storm works to our south. High temps near 20 degrees today can be expected, with wind chills around 10 degrees at the very most.
SNOW OVERNIGHT - IT'S GOING TO BE CLOSE
Between dry air to our north being pushed south, and humid air with the storm being pushed north, this is a great setup to get an incredibly sharp and narrow divide between where we see snow and where we don't. And with the storm working west-east through Iowa, there won't be a whole lot of north/south movement in the snow by the time it's snowing.
Snow will add up fast on one side of the divide where multiple inches are possible. Little to no snow at all is expected on the flipside to the south. The current forecast calls for 1-4 inches moving through Charles City, with Mason City on the edge of that divide. It is important to note that the difference between no snow and 4 inches could be as small as 10 miles. Some widely used weather models are pushing snow further north into Minnesota, but high resolution models are resoundingly trending south with dry air keeping things at bay. This is about as good of a setup for a sharp cutoff as you can get.
Winter Weather Advisories are out for Hancock, Cerro Gordo, and Floyd counties 6pm Monday - 6am Tuesday. These could be expanded or contracted later today as the storm draws closer.
Bottom line: Folks in northern Iowa need to be aware of the potential for several inches of snow tonight, and stay tuned to the forecast tonight for changes.