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UPDATE: This article was updated at 3:41pm Sunday to reflect new developments from the storm prediction center.
The storm prediction center has issued a slight risk ( a level 2/5 designation) for parts of the area including all of the counties in northern Iowa. A marginal risk (1/5) for severe weather is in place across the rest of the area including southern Minnesota.
The best chance for severe weather will be Sunday evening, but there is another morning system we will have to shake before then.
Early Sunday morning, a fast moving squall line of thunderstorms was marching across the MN-IA border. This squall line is carrying with it lightning, heavy rainfall, and strong winds. This system is being fueled by dense fog seen across the area Sunday morning. As the rising sun and temperatures reduce the fog, this squall line will fizzle out, meaning that area further to the east will see a weaker storm than those to the west.
Skies will likely be mostly sunny by noon or soon after. Temps will begin to soar into the low 80s, and dew points into the upper 60s and low 70s, as southerly winds push energy into the area. This will build up quite a bit of potential storm energy by 5 o'clock. Around this time is when storms are expected to erupt.
The first storms that pop will be the ones with the best chance for going severe, With so much raw energy available, these storms could quickly explode and produce strong winds, large hail, and some heavy rain. Keep in mind, even though these first storms will pack a punch, they will be small and localized. But do not fret, more storms will continue to pop for the rest of the evening Sunday, although they have a lesser chance of turning severe. The tornado threat for this second round is low, as wind profiles in the atmosphere at this time will not be favorable for making storms spin.
On/off storms will continue into early Monday morning. More isolated storms are expected on Memorial Day.