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It's been awhile since we have seen severe weather, but our luck may have reached its end.
With southerly winds through this weekend, temperatures and humidity are on their way up. Temps both Saturday and Sunday will reach into the mid to upper 80s, with dew points moving up into the low to mid 70s. Very summer-like sticky conditions no doubt. And with all this heat and water in the air, there is plenty of fuel for thunderstorms to take hold.
Our first chance for severe weather comes late Friday, as a small disturbance in the atmosphere provides the instability necessary to unlock some of this potential storm energy. The Storm Prediction Center has most of our area at a MARGINAL RISK (1/5) for severe weather. Strong wind, hail, and heavy downpours are the main threats. Scattered thunderstorms could last through early Saturday morning.
Another severe weather chance will arrive late Sunday, when another disturbance works its way into our area. With plenty of available energy, wind shear, and with the disturbance arriving during the afternoon's peak heating hours, there is a potential for organized and widespread severe weather. Hail, winds, and even tornadoes could all be threats come Sunday afternoon.
There is one potential wrench in this scenario; warm air in the mid layers of the atmosphere could work to stop any storm development in its tracks. And with this chance still being 4 days out, some changes to the forecast are likely. Regardless, there is likely to be enough energy available for some serious thunderstorms.
On another note, any rainfall we can get will be good news for farmers. The US Drought Monitor put much of our area under ABNORMALLY DRY CONDITIONS, a level 1/5 drought, on Thursday. With several chances for rain over the next week, there is a prospect for some areas seeing an inch or 2 of rain.