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While Thursday is turning out to be a perfect warm summer day with mostly sunny skies, this is not representative of what's to come.
Southerly winds Thursday are bringing warm temps and more humidity to the upper Midwest. While this is making for great pool weather Thursday, these conditions will fuel storms come Friday - some of which could form as early as 2am.
A disturbance in the mid-layers of the atmosphere will move across Nebraska, Minnesota, and Wisconsin over the course of Friday. This disturbance will work to enhance southerly winds ahead of it, wiliest a cold front works to destabilizing the atmosphere in its wake. The center of this disturbance will work across our area sometime area Friday between 8am and 12pm.
The first round of potential storms comes early in the morning as the disturbance is approaching. High humidity temps overnight will begin to unleash scattered storms across the area as early as 2am. These storms will be on/off, with the main threats here being strong wind and heavy downpours. Severe threat is particularly low, but isolated severe storms are possible. There will not be significant amount of available storm energy at this time. Storms will likely temporarily cease sometime between 8am - 12pm as the disturbance passes.
After the the disturbance passes, a cold front will sit across the southeastern portion of our area through the evening. This cold front will give increasing potential storm energy, in the form of rising heat and humidity, throughout the day a potential outlet to spark a second round of storms. Severe risk here is at a marginal risk (1/5). Still rather low, but possible nonetheless. The timing of this second round of on/off scattered strong storms in from 12pm - 9pm, although this could actually start slightly earlier should the disturbance move out faster Friday morning. Severe risks here are heavy wind, large hail, heavy downpours, isolated flooding, and a chance for brief spin up tornadoes to our southeast.
Luckily, Saturday is looking like another great warm sunny day with temps in the 80s.