CNN Poll: In final days, Democrats maintain advantage

On the eve of the...

Posted: Nov 5, 2018 6:55 PM
Updated: Nov 5, 2018 6:55 PM

On the eve of the midterm elections, Democrats continue to hold a double-digit lead over Republicans in a generic congressional ballot among likely voters, according to a new CNN Poll conducted by SSRS. The party's 55% to 42% advantage in the new poll mirrors their lead in early October and is about the same as the 10-point edge they held just after Labor Day.

That's a slimmer edge than the party held in CNN's final poll before the 2006 midterm elections and similar to the Republicans' 10-point advantage just before the 2010 midterms.

Donald Trump

Education

Education systems and institutions

Elections (by type)

Elections and campaigns

Government and public administration

Government bodies and offices

Government organizations - US

Higher education

Midterm elections

Political Figures - US

Political organizations

Politics

US Congress

US Democratic Party

US federal government

US political parties

US Republican Party

Voters and voting

White House

RELATED: Full poll results

Democrats benefit from a massive gender gap that has persisted throughout the fall (women favor Democrats 62% to 35%, while men are about evenly divided, 49% back the Republican, while 48% support the Democrat in their district), a wide lead among political independents (53% for the Democrat to 39% for the Republican), and strong support from black and Latino voters (88% of black voters and 66% of Latino voters favor the Democrats).

The gender gap cuts across lines of race and education, with non-white women (79% favor Democrats) and white women with college degrees (68% back the Democrat) breaking most heavily for the Democrats, while white men (57% Republican) and particularly white men without college degrees (65% back the Republican) are most deeply behind the GOP.

About 7 in 10 likely voters say that when they cast a ballot on Tuesday, they'll be sending a message about President Donald Trump, and more often than not, the message those voters want to send is one of opposition.

Overall, 42% of likely voters say their vote will be to express opposition to the president, while 28% say that it'll be to support him.

Another 28% say their vote isn't about the president. That level of opposition is similar to the way likely voters felt just ahead of the 2006 election, when 41% said they were voting to oppose then-President George W. Bush. Fewer voters in that year, just 16%, said they were turning out to support the president.

Trump's approval rating in the poll stands at 39% overall, with 55% disapproving, slightly worse than in early October, when 41% approved of his performance and 52% disapproved.

That is the worst pre-election approval rating for any president approaching their first midterm election in polling dating back to Eisenhower.

Among likely voters, a majority, 52% say they strongly disapprove of the way the president is handling his job, 35% say they strongly approve of his work as President, and just 11% of those likely to vote on Tuesday say they don't have strong views on Trump.

With the election just days away as the poll was conducted, enthusiasm was up among both parties' voters, but Democrats advantage in enthusiasm narrowed to just 4 points: 68% of Democrats and Democratic-leaning independents were enthusiastic about voting, while 64% of Republicans and Republican-leaning independents said the same.

A majority of likely voters (52%) say they consider health care extremely important to their vote for Congress on Tuesday, with immigration and Trump closely behind at 49% each. Just behind that, 47% each say the economy, corruption and gun policy are extremely important to their vote.

But voters' issue priorities are sharply divided by party. Among Democrats, 71% call health care extremely important. That stands at 37% among Republicans. Almost two-thirds of Republicans (64%) say immigration is extremely important to them, while that dips twenty points to 44% among Democrats. And while 60% of Republicans call the economy extremely important, just 39% of Democrats agree.

Most Democrats consider the Russia investigation a critical part of their vote (53% say it's extremely important), but just 8% of Republicans say the same. The one issue they both agree on: Trump. Majorities in both parties say he's extremely important to their vote (55% of Republicans, 53% of Democrats).

About half of likely voters say that if Democrats win control of Congress, the country would be better off (48%), while about a third say it'll be worse off (35%).

Most Americans (56%) think it's likely that a foreign government will interfere with the US elections this fall, and 74% think that if it happens, it would be a crisis or a major problem. Worries about foreign interference are more widespread among Democrats, 74% of whom think it's likely to happen and 90% of whom consider it a major problem.

Among Republicans, just 33% think such interference is likely and 57% consider it a major problem or more.

The poll also finds 8 in 10 Americans think the country is more deeply divided this year on major issues than it has been in the past several years. That's slightly lower than the 85% who felt that way just after Trump's election in 2016.

As many as 74% say that the recent tone of American politics is encouraging violence among some people. That's about the same as said so in a CBS News poll conducted shortly after a Republican member of Congress was shot during a June 2017 congressional baseball practice for a charity event.

The CNN Poll was conducted by SSRS from November 1 through 3 among a random national sample of 1,518 adults reached on landlines or cellphones by a live interviewer. Results for the full sample have a margin of sampling error of plus or minus 3.1 percentage points, for the subset of 1,151 likely voters, it is plus or minus 3.5 percentage points.

Minnesota Coronavirus Cases

Data is updated nightly.

Confirmed Cases: 20573

Reported Deaths: 878
CountyConfirmedDeaths
Hennepin6918534
Ramsey231697
Stearns192312
Nobles14572
Anoka116455
Dakota105935
Olmsted55110
Washington50626
Kandiyohi4541
Clay36623
Rice3652
Scott3462
Wright2401
Sherburne2081
Todd1970
Benton1662
Carver1612
Mower1501
Steele1400
Martin1245
Blue Earth1121
St. Louis11113
Pine850
Freeborn840
Winona7715
Carlton730
Nicollet683
Cottonwood620
Polk582
Otter Tail550
Itasca527
Goodhue522
Watonwan500
Chisago481
Dodge430
Meeker420
Crow Wing421
Le Sueur411
Chippewa400
Jackson390
Morrison380
Murray350
Becker320
Lyon310
Douglas290
McLeod260
Isanti250
Waseca240
Rock210
Unassigned199
Fillmore171
Mille Lacs161
Wabasha160
Swift150
Sibley120
Beltrami120
Wilkin113
Norman110
Kanabec111
Cass113
Faribault110
Brown112
Pipestone100
Marshall80
Pennington70
Pope70
Aitkin60
Wadena60
Yellow Medicine50
Koochiching50
Lincoln50
Mahnomen51
Renville50
Lac qui Parle30
Red Lake30
Big Stone30
Redwood30
Traverse30
Grant20
Houston20
Clearwater20
Hubbard10
Kittson10
Lake10
Roseau10

Iowa Coronavirus Cases

Data is updated nightly.

Confirmed Cases: 17227

Reported Deaths: 456
CountyConfirmedDeaths
Polk3714108
Woodbury255524
Black Hawk167639
Linn92775
Marshall86611
Dallas84914
Johnson5987
Muscatine54339
Wapello5004
Crawford4772
Tama39023
Louisa3347
Scott3319
Dubuque31916
Jasper25616
Buena Vista2310
Pottawattamie2106
Sioux1990
Washington1798
Allamakee1184
Wright1170
Plymouth1080
Warren1060
Story941
Poweshiek888
Bremer676
Henry611
Clinton601
Boone540
Des Moines531
Mahaska526
Cedar451
Guthrie433
Taylor370
Benton371
Jones360
Monroe334
Iowa320
Clarke320
Osceola320
Shelby310
Buchanan310
Clayton303
Marion290
Webster271
Fayette260
Hamilton260
Madison241
Monona230
Cerro Gordo221
Lee220
Winneshiek210
Davis200
Lyon190
Grundy190
Harrison190
Floyd181
Jefferson150
Cherokee150
Butler150
Mills140
Delaware140
Humboldt130
Sac130
Greene130
Keokuk130
Hardin130
Howard120
Hancock120
Appanoose123
Audubon111
Jackson110
Cass110
Ida100
Page100
Clay100
Winnebago100
Carroll90
Van Buren80
Franklin80
Dickinson80
Adair80
Chickasaw80
Kossuth70
Emmet70
Lucas60
Montgomery60
Union60
Adams50
Ringgold40
Fremont40
Pocahontas40
Mitchell40
Palo Alto30
Worth30
Unassigned30
Calhoun20
Wayne10
Decatur00
Rochester
Overcast
65° wxIcon
Hi: 80° Lo: 64°
Feels Like: 65°
Mason City
Overcast
64° wxIcon
Hi: 81° Lo: 64°
Feels Like: 64°
Albert Lea
Overcast
64° wxIcon
Hi: 79° Lo: 64°
Feels Like: 64°
Austin
Overcast
66° wxIcon
Hi: 82° Lo: 66°
Feels Like: 66°
Charles City
Scattered Clouds
64° wxIcon
Hi: 81° Lo: 64°
Feels Like: 64°
Storms a brewin'
KIMT Radar
KIMT Eye in the sky

Latest Video

Image

Sara's Daybreak Forecast - Monday

${item.thumbnail.title}

StormTeam 3: Memorial Day's Severe Weather Threat

Image

Deciding on the return of prep sports in Iowa

Image

Sean Weather 5/24

Image

Minnesota campgrounds missing out on Memorial Day Weekend

Image

Minnesota places of worship to open this week

Image

MDVA to honor veterans virtually on Memorial Day

Image

Roosters base ball club of Rochester holds first practice

Image

Sean Weather 5/24

Image

Sean Weather 5/23

Community Events