Poll: 6 House races move toward Democrats

Heading into Election Day, six House races have shifted -- all in favor of the Democrats. CNN's John King breaks down the new numbers and highlights which districts to watch.

Posted: Nov 5, 2018 11:54 AM
Updated: Nov 5, 2018 12:14 PM

The first $5 billion election is almost in the books.

Democrats, including House Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi, are voicing confidence the party "will" take back control of the chamber.

My colleague Harry Enten said it best: The fundamentals of the midterm elections haven't changed.

The generic ballot advantage, enthusiasm edge and President Trump's underwater approval rating are facts that all work in the Democrats' favor. Mix in the staggering fundraising numbers seen this cycle and it adds up to an environment ripe for strong Democratic gains.

In the final update to CNN's Key Race ratings, we are moving six contests -- all in favor of the Democrats.

Heading into Election Day -- now just three days away -- 15 seats held or vacated by Republicans are leaning, likely or solid for Democrats. Winning all of those races would put Democrats eight seats shy of the 23 the party needs to gain to win control of the House.

Of the 31 races CNN now rates as Tossups, only one is currently held by Democrats. If Democrats win a third of those, then they'll find themselves in the majority with a couple seats to spare. Republicans are favored to pick up two Democratic-held seats, which would add to the challenge for Democrats on Election Night.

To the races:

FL-06: Democrat Nancy Soderberg, a former ambassador and National Security Council official, has outraised Republican Michael Waltz, an Army veteran and small business owner in the race to replace former GOP Rep. Ron DeSantis, who is running for governor. Trump won this Daytona Beach district by 16 points. The vast majority of the roughly $3.7 million being spent on TV in this district in the final week is coming from Soderberg and her allies -- including $2.4 million from Michael Bloomberg's Independence USA PAC.

Race moves from Likely Republican to Lean Republican

GA-07: This is another contest where Democrats hold a significant resource advantage. Four-term GOP Rep. Rob Woodall hasn't run any TV ads, based on data provided by Kantar Media/CMAG. His Democratic challenger, Carolyn Bourdeaux, has spent about $150,000 -- and has been backed in the final weeks with nearly $1 million from Independence USA PAC. Trump won this majority-minority district in the Atlanta suburbs with 51% -- down from Mitt Romney's 60% in 2012.

Race moves from Likely Republican to Lean Republican

KS-03: Democrat Sharice Davids appears poised to flip this suburban Kansas City district that went narrowly for Clinton two years ago. The National Republican Congressional Committee last month canceled $1 million in planned TV spending to support GOP Rep. Kevin Yoder, though the Congressional Leadership Fund has remained engaged in the race. Overall spending in the final week favors Democrats, with Davids outpacing Yoder $445,000 to $364,000 head-to-head, while Independence USA PAC, the DCCC and House Majority PAC combined are chipping in more than $600,000 to benefit the Democratic challenger.

Race moves from Toss-Up to Lean Democratic

SC-01: The National Republican Congressional Committee invested in this race late, looking to avoid a surprise upset in a district Trump won by 14 points. Democrat Joe Cunningham, an engineer and attorney, has outraised Republican Katie Arrington, and spent three times more on TV. Cunningham has tried to make Arrington's shifting stances on offshore drilling a key issue in this Lowcountry district.

Race moves from Likely Republican to Lean Republican

TX-32: This race between GOP Rep. Pete Sessions and Democrat Colin Allred is expected to draw nearly $5 million in TV ads in the last week of the campaign, per Kantar Media/CMAG. Part of that is a late $1.4 million infusion from Independence USA PAC aimed at lifting Allred. This suburban Dallas district backed Clinton by two points after giving Mitt Romney a 15-point victory in 2012.

Race moves from Lean Republican to Toss-Up

UT-04: GOP Rep. Mia Love won her 2014 race by four points in a good year for Republicans. This year she's facing a strong challenge from Democrat Ben McAdams, the mayor of Salt Lake County, which accounts for roughly 85% of the district. A New York Times/Siena poll found McAdams and Love deadlocked at 45% a piece. While McAdams has outspent Love on TV, the GOP incumbent has been backed by more than $1 million in ads from CLF.

Race moves from Lean Republican to Toss-Up

Minnesota Coronavirus Cases

Data is updated nightly.

Confirmed Cases: 40163

Reported Deaths: 1528
CountyConfirmedDeaths
Hennepin12867789
Ramsey5066230
Dakota252494
Stearns244819
Anoka2328111
Nobles16766
Olmsted119617
Washington119040
Mower9722
Rice8628
Scott8034
Clay59838
Kandiyohi5841
Blue Earth5352
Wright5055
Carver4331
Todd4022
Sherburne3405
Lyon3312
Freeborn3020
Watonwan2420
Steele2401
Benton2283
St. Louis20316
Nicollet18712
Martin1715
Cottonwood1380
Goodhue1378
Winona13315
Le Sueur1171
Pine1110
Crow Wing10812
Chisago1031
Otter Tail1021
McLeod960
Dodge930
Carlton890
Polk863
Unassigned8438
Chippewa791
Isanti780
Waseca730
Itasca6812
Douglas670
Murray670
Pipestone664
Meeker621
Morrison611
Faribault600
Becker570
Jackson570
Sibley562
Pennington530
Beltrami410
Brown392
Renville372
Mille Lacs342
Wabasha340
Rock310
Yellow Medicine310
Fillmore300
Houston290
Swift251
Grant220
Norman210
Redwood210
Wilkin213
Cass192
Roseau190
Big Stone170
Koochiching171
Kanabec161
Wadena160
Aitkin150
Marshall120
Pope120
Lincoln110
Clearwater100
Mahnomen101
Hubbard80
Stevens80
Lake60
Traverse60
Lac qui Parle40
Red Lake40
Kittson20
Cook10
Lake of the Woods00

Iowa Coronavirus Cases

Data is updated nightly.

Confirmed Cases: 33162

Reported Deaths: 740
CountyConfirmedDeaths
Polk6990182
Woodbury328243
Black Hawk239759
Buena Vista172711
Johnson13848
Linn134183
Dallas133031
Marshall106819
Scott92610
Dubuque83422
Story8254
Pottawattamie78012
Wapello71231
Muscatine68344
Crawford6793
Sioux4930
Tama47829
Wright3891
Louisa36313
Plymouth3365
Jasper33217
Warren3001
Dickinson2853
Webster2844
Washington2489
Cerro Gordo2231
Hamilton1931
Boone1601
Clay1431
Clarke1403
Allamakee1354
Clinton1211
Mahaska11817
Shelby1180
Poweshiek1088
Carroll1041
Pocahontas1041
Bremer1027
Franklin990
Des Moines952
Emmet920
Henry903
Hardin880
Cedar851
Cherokee811
Taylor810
Monona770
Marion750
Floyd742
Benton721
Guthrie724
Jones680
Sac650
Osceola640
Iowa621
Jefferson620
Buchanan611
Butler602
Humboldt591
Calhoun582
Hancock571
Harrison560
Delaware541
Fayette540
Lee542
Madison512
Monroe517
Jackson480
Lyon480
Clayton473
Mills460
Palo Alto460
Mitchell430
Winneshiek430
Davis421
Grundy420
Kossuth390
Howard370
Union370
Lucas324
Winnebago310
Chickasaw290
Greene290
Cass270
Ida230
Unassigned220
Appanoose213
Van Buren210
Worth210
Keokuk201
Page200
Adair160
Audubon161
Ringgold151
Decatur120
Montgomery112
Wayne100
Adams80
Fremont80
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