CNN Key Races: Six races move toward Democrats as battle for control of the House enters the home stretch

The first $5 billi...

Posted: Nov 5, 2018 1:31 AM
Updated: Nov 5, 2018 1:31 AM

The first $5 billion election is almost in the books.

Democrats, including House Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi, are voicing confidence the party "will" take back control of the chamber.

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My colleague Harry Enten said it best: The fundamentals of the midterm elections haven't changed.

The generic ballot advantage, enthusiasm edge and President Trump's underwater approval rating are facts that all work in the Democrats' favor. Mix in the staggering fundraising numbers seen this cycle and it adds up to an environment ripe for strong Democratic gains.

In the final update to CNN's Key Race ratings, we are moving six contests -- all in favor of the Democrats.

Heading into Election Day -- now just three days away -- 15 seats held or vacated by Republicans are leaning, likely or solid for Democrats. Winning all of those races would put Democrats eight seats shy of the 23 the party needs to gain to win control of the House.

Of the 31 races CNN now rates as Tossups, only one is currently held by Democrats. If Democrats win a third of those, then they'll find themselves in the majority with a couple seats to spare. Republicans are favored to pick up two Democratic-held seats, which would add to the challenge for Democrats on Election Night.

To the races:

FL-06: Democrat Nancy Soderberg, a former ambassador and National Security Council official, has outraised Republican Michael Waltz, an Army veteran and small business owner in the race to replace former GOP Rep. Ron DeSantis, who is running for governor. Trump won this Daytona Beach district by 16 points. The vast majority of the roughly $3.7 million being spent on TV in this district in the final week is coming from Soderberg and her allies -- including $2.4 million from Michael Bloomberg's Independence USA PAC.

Race moves from Likely Republican to Lean Republican

GA-07: This is another contest where Democrats hold a significant resource advantage. Four-term GOP Rep. Rob Woodall hasn't run any TV ads, based on data provided by Kantar Media/CMAG. His Democratic challenger, Carolyn Bourdeaux, has spent about $150,000 -- and has been backed in the final weeks with nearly $1 million from Independence USA PAC. Trump won this majority-minority district in the Atlanta suburbs with 51% -- down from Mitt Romney's 60% in 2012.

Race moves from Likely Republican to Lean Republican

KS-03: Democrat Sharice Davids appears poised to flip this suburban Kansas City district that went narrowly for Clinton two years ago. The National Republican Congressional Committee last month canceled $1 million in planned TV spending to support GOP Rep. Kevin Yoder, though the Congressional Leadership Fund has remained engaged in the race. Overall spending in the final week favors Democrats, with Davids outpacing Yoder $445,000 to $364,000 head-to-head, while Independence USA PAC, the DCCC and House Majority PAC combined are chipping in more than $600,000 to benefit the Democratic challenger.

Race moves from Toss-Up to Lean Democratic

SC-01: The National Republican Congressional Committee invested in this race late, looking to avoid a surprise upset in a district Trump won by 14 points. Democrat Joe Cunningham, an engineer and attorney, has outraised Republican Katie Arrington, and spent three times more on TV. Cunningham has tried to make Arrington's shifting stances on offshore drilling a key issue in this Lowcountry district.

Race moves from Likely Republican to Lean Republican

TX-32: This race between GOP Rep. Pete Sessions and Democrat Colin Allred is expected to draw nearly $5 million in TV ads in the last week of the campaign, per Kantar Media/CMAG. Part of that is a late $1.4 million infusion from Independence USA PAC aimed at lifting Allred. This suburban Dallas district backed Clinton by two points after giving Mitt Romney a 15-point victory in 2012.

Race moves from Lean Republican to Toss-Up

UT-04: GOP Rep. Mia Love won her 2014 race by four points in a good year for Republicans. This year she's facing a strong challenge from Democrat Ben McAdams, the mayor of Salt Lake County, which accounts for roughly 85% of the district. A New York Times/Siena poll found McAdams and Love deadlocked at 45% a piece. While McAdams has outspent Love on TV, the GOP incumbent has been backed by more than $1 million in ads from CLF.

Race moves from Lean Republican to Toss-Up

Minnesota Coronavirus Cases

Data is updated nightly.

Confirmed Cases: 22464

Reported Deaths: 942
CountyConfirmedDeaths
Hennepin7540565
Ramsey2610103
Stearns198412
Nobles14883
Anoka126259
Dakota118244
Olmsted57510
Washington56230
Kandiyohi4751
Rice4112
Clay40625
Scott3792
Todd2960
Wright2691
Sherburne2192
Mower2161
Carver1852
Benton1692
Steele1480
Martin1265
Blue Earth1221
St. Louis11513
Freeborn970
Pine850
Winona7815
Nicollet747
Carlton730
Cottonwood650
Otter Tail620
Unassigned6110
Goodhue603
Watonwan590
Polk592
Crow Wing571
Itasca537
Chisago501
Dodge460
Chippewa441
Meeker440
Le Sueur431
Morrison400
Douglas390
Jackson390
Becker370
Murray360
Lyon360
Isanti330
McLeod290
Waseca240
Rock210
Swift170
Pennington170
Mille Lacs171
Fillmore171
Wabasha170
Brown142
Faribault130
Beltrami130
Sibley130
Cass122
Norman110
Wilkin113
Kanabec111
Pipestone100
Marshall90
Pope80
Wadena80
Aitkin70
Koochiching70
Yellow Medicine60
Lincoln50
Renville50
Mahnomen51
Red Lake40
Traverse30
Big Stone30
Clearwater30
Redwood30
Grant30
Lac qui Parle30
Houston20
Lake10
Hubbard10
Roseau10
Kittson10

Iowa Coronavirus Cases

Data is updated nightly.

Confirmed Cases: 18342

Reported Deaths: 496
CountyConfirmedDeaths
Polk3876115
Woodbury265831
Black Hawk171343
Linn93876
Marshall87815
Dallas87317
Buena Vista6820
Johnson6058
Muscatine54741
Wapello5384
Crawford4882
Tama40026
Scott34610
Louisa33610
Dubuque33016
Jasper25716
Pottawattamie2277
Sioux2100
Washington1858
Wright1240
Allamakee1194
Plymouth1191
Warren1140
Story961
Poweshiek888
Mahaska888
Bremer676
Henry671
Clinton601
Des Moines581
Boone560
Taylor480
Cedar461
Guthrie443
Clarke400
Benton391
Jones360
Iowa360
Monroe354
Shelby350
Clayton313
Buchanan310
Osceola310
Marion300
Webster291
Hamilton280
Madison261
Fayette260
Monona240
Lee230
Cherokee230
Winneshiek230
Cerro Gordo221
Davis200
Jefferson190
Harrison190
Lyon190
Grundy190
Floyd181
Sac170
Mills160
Hardin150
Butler150
Delaware150
Humboldt140
Ida140
Keokuk140
Hancock140
Appanoose133
Jackson130
Dickinson130
Clay130
Greene130
Howard120
Audubon121
Winnebago110
Cass110
Page100
Van Buren90
Franklin90
Carroll90
Pocahontas90
Chickasaw80
Emmet80
Unassigned80
Kossuth80
Adair70
Adams70
Lucas70
Union60
Montgomery60
Mitchell50
Ringgold40
Fremont40
Palo Alto30
Worth30
Calhoun20
Decatur10
Wayne10
Rochester
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