The Forecast predicts House and Senate races

CNN launched The Forecast, an experimental product that uses data analysis to forecast who has the best chance of controlling the House and Senate.

Posted: Oct 13, 2018 3:01 PM
Updated: Oct 13, 2018 3:32 PM

House forecast: Democrats will win 229 seats (and the House majority) while Republicans will win just 206 seats. A Democratic win of 205 seats and 262 seats is within the margin of error.

Senate forecast: Republicans will hold 52 seats (and maintain control of the Senate) next Congress while Democrats will hold just 48. Anything between Republicans holding 47 seats and 57 seats is within the margin of error.

Republican hopes of holding the Senate look as bright as ever. Thanks to clear Republican advantages in North Dakota, Tennessee and Texas in our forecast, the Democratic path to a Senate majority is currently blocked. All of those races are within the margin of error, but they aren't razor tight.

For 2020 presidential implications, however, the forecast has good news for Democrats. President Donald Trump was able to win in 2016 because he broke the Democratic stranglehold on the Midwest. Specifically, he took Iowa, Michigan, Ohio, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. Without these states, he would have lost to Hillary Clinton. Trump also came close to winning Minnesota, which no Republican presidential candidate has done since Richard Nixon.

Democrats probably have to win back a good chunk of these states in 2020 to win the presidency.

All of these states except Iowa have a Senate race in 2018, and Democrats lead in all of them.

Michigan: Democratic Sen. Debbie Stabenow is forecasted to win by 18 points. That advantage is outside the margin of error.

Ohio: Democratic Sen. Sherrod Brown is forecasted to win by 15 points. This advantage is outside the margin of error.

Pennsylvania: Democratic Sen. Bob Casey is forecasted to win by 14 points. This advantage is right on the edge of being outside the margin of error.

Wisconsin: Democratic Sen. Tammy Baldwin is forecasted to win by 12 points. This advantage is inside the margin of error, but is on the outer-bands.

You notice a pattern? Democrats are predicted to win all these races by double-digits. Some of them are so big that they are outside the margin of error. That's a far cry from 2016, when Republicans won the presidential race and (when there was one) Senate races in all these states.

It's no better for Republicans in Minnesota. Although Republicans may pick up a seat or two in Republican-leaning House districts, the Senate seats currently look out of reach. Senior Democratic Sen. Amy Klobuchar is forecasted to win by 24 points, which is well outside the margin of error. Democratic Sen. Tina Smith is forecasted to take Minnesota's other Senate seat by 10 points -- an advantage on the edge of the margin of error.

Now, it would be easy to argue that this is merely Democratic incumbent senators merely using the incumbency advantage. That, however, would ignore the strength that Democrats are having in the gubernatorial contests in these states.

We're not forecasting winners and losers in the gubernatorial races, though the polling averages in these states are quite instructive. Democrats are ahead of their Republican rivals in all these states, and only one of them (Pennsylvania) had a Democratic incumbent.

Iowa: Democrat Fred Hubbell holds a 4-point lead over Republican Gov. Kim Reynolds.

Michigan: Democrat Gretchen Whitmer is up 9 points over Republican Bill Schuette.

Minnesota: Democrat Tim Walz leads Republican Jeff Johnson by 9 points.

Ohio: Democrat Richard Cordray is ahead of Republican Mike DeWine by 3 points.

Pennsylvania: Democratic Gov. Tom Wolf is winning by 17 points over Republican Scott Wagner.

Wisconsin: Democrat Tony Evers is barely up on Republican Scott Walker by 4 points.

Obviously, not all of these leads are large. Additionally, it shouldn't be too surprising that Democrats are doing well given the national environment favors them.

Still, these results suggest that the Midwest isn't moving to the right this year. It is still a very winnable region for Democrats in 2020. Without it, Democrats may be locked out of the White House.

Minnesota Coronavirus Cases

Data is updated nightly.

Confirmed Cases: 57162

Reported Deaths: 1660
CountyConfirmedDeaths
Hennepin18197820
Ramsey7047261
Dakota4049103
Anoka3410113
Stearns284220
Washington193843
Nobles17496
Olmsted163523
Scott141017
Mower10842
Rice10028
Blue Earth8595
Wright8205
Carver7922
Clay75240
Kandiyohi6771
Sherburne6577
St. Louis45319
Todd4202
Lyon4163
Freeborn3551
Steele3331
Nicollet32013
Benton3103
Watonwan2990
Winona24916
Crow Wing21313
Martin2045
Le Sueur2021
Beltrami2000
Chisago1821
Otter Tail1793
Goodhue1778
Cottonwood1730
Becker1471
Pipestone1439
McLeod1400
Unassigned14040
Polk1353
Itasca13412
Douglas1320
Waseca1300
Pine1280
Carlton1260
Dodge1230
Murray1221
Isanti1100
Chippewa991
Brown852
Faribault840
Meeker832
Morrison821
Wabasha820
Sibley802
Rock750
Koochiching743
Pennington731
Jackson700
Mille Lacs683
Cass622
Fillmore610
Renville605
Lincoln540
Swift521
Grant511
Yellow Medicine490
Roseau460
Pope450
Houston390
Norman370
Hubbard320
Redwood320
Marshall290
Kanabec281
Wilkin283
Aitkin270
Mahnomen241
Wadena230
Big Stone220
Red Lake200
Lake180
Stevens160
Clearwater150
Traverse100
Lac qui Parle60
Kittson30
Cook20
Lake of the Woods10

Iowa Coronavirus Cases

Data is updated nightly.

Confirmed Cases: 46100

Reported Deaths: 887
CountyConfirmedDeaths
Polk9781203
Woodbury365651
Black Hawk302262
Linn214587
Johnson195915
Dallas179635
Buena Vista178612
Scott161512
Dubuque154929
Marshall139424
Pottawattamie122723
Story111714
Wapello85032
Muscatine83048
Webster7366
Crawford7213
Sioux6022
Cerro Gordo57917
Tama53929
Warren5341
Jasper45825
Wright4441
Plymouth4438
Louisa37814
Dickinson3754
Clinton3213
Washington28810
Hamilton2411
Boone2312
Franklin2256
Bremer1927
Clarke1883
Carroll1821
Emmet1812
Clay1711
Shelby1691
Hardin1660
Marion1550
Allamakee1504
Poweshiek1508
Benton1451
Jackson1411
Des Moines1392
Mahaska13617
Floyd1312
Guthrie1285
Jones1242
Cedar1201
Hancock1172
Butler1152
Buchanan1141
Henry1143
Pocahontas1141
Lyon1060
Madison1052
Clayton993
Cherokee981
Harrison980
Lee973
Taylor930
Humboldt921
Delaware911
Iowa901
Monona900
Winneshiek861
Mills830
Calhoun822
Fayette810
Sac810
Palo Alto800
Kossuth780
Osceola780
Jefferson770
Winnebago770
Mitchell760
Page760
Grundy741
Union721
Monroe677
Worth610
Chickasaw510
Davis501
Lucas504
Howard490
Cass481
Montgomery453
Appanoose433
Greene380
Fremont350
Van Buren331
Keokuk311
Ida290
Audubon281
Decatur220
Adair210
Ringgold211
Wayne181
Adams160
Unassigned00
Rochester
Broken Clouds
70° wxIcon
Hi: 75° Lo: 58°
Feels Like: 70°
Mason City
Overcast
70° wxIcon
Hi: 73° Lo: 59°
Feels Like: 70°
Albert Lea
Overcast
68° wxIcon
Hi: 71° Lo: 60°
Feels Like: 68°
Austin
Overcast
70° wxIcon
Hi: 76° Lo: 60°
Feels Like: 70°
Charles City
Overcast
68° wxIcon
Hi: 73° Lo: 60°
Feels Like: 68°
Shower and storms chances for tonight into Thursday
KIMT Radar
KIMT Eye in the sky

Latest Video

Image

MN #2 in US for Health Care

Image

Olmsted Health and Human Services healthy budget

Image

Case numbers falling in Iowa

Image

One Book, One Minnesota

Image

Relay For Life Freeborn County

Image

School Supply Donations Needed

Image

Adjusting To A New Way Of Learning

Image

08-05-2020 bRI

Image

Spark Opens To The Public

Image

City Park Complaints Increase

Community Events