Inside Politics: Midterm machinations

Some Republicans believe they can still save their House majority, but GOP operatives and donors worry the president still doesn't realize how bad it could be. Plus, President Trump starts talking on the stump about Medicare and Social Security and prepares for a fall pivot to foreign policy. It's all on Inside Politics.

Posted: Sep 10, 2018 11:24 AM
Updated: Sep 10, 2018 12:02 PM

Here are the stories our D.C. insiders are talking about in this week's "Inside Politics" forecast, where you get a glimpse of tomorrow's headlines today.

1. White House's rose-colored glasses

Is the President ready for November? CNN national political correspondent Maeve Reston said she's hearing from Republican operatives and donors worried that President Trump and his top advisers don't realize how bad November's election could be for them.

"There's real concern that he is totally delusional about the chances of keeping the House," Reston said. "That's in part because there aren't a lot of people who are around him willing to tell him the truth."

2. Trump may turn to foreign policy

With the President under siege at home, he may soon borrow a familiar White House tactic: a focus on foreign affairs.

"Presidents often, when they get in trouble at home, go abroad and they find that's a way to escape their troubles," said New York Times White House reporter Michael Shear. Trump will address the UN General Assembly later this month, and has trips to Europe and South America planned for after the election.

"President Trump hasn't always been as successful using the foreign trips as a way of getting away from trouble," said Shear, citing the Helsinski summit with Russian President Vladimir Putin. "But at least it's an opportunity to change the subject, and if the Democrats do take over the House he'll want to try to do that."

3. Trump talking more about entitlements

President Trump's recent rallies have included a new rallying cry: I'm the one who will save your Social Security and Medicare.

"The President is saying Democrats want to kill Social Security and Medicare, while the Republicans are not going to do anything to it," Bloomberg White House correspondent Toluse Olorunnipa said. Trump is making that promise despite so many of his fellow Republicans vowing to rein in entitlement spending.

"Democrats are pushing back, saying Republicans aren't necessarily trying to save Social Security, their tax cuts are making it harder to fund those programs," said Olorunnipa.

4. Congress eyes new Russia sanctions -- later

After the Trump-Putin summit in Helsinki, there was a clamor in Congress to do more to punish Russia for election meddling that appears to be going on to this day. But Washington Post congressional reporter Karoun Demirjian said nothing looks imminent.

"The GOP basically said, hold on hold on, we're going to go through a step-by-step process first," said Demirjian. "That process began in earnest last week, it's picking up steam this week. The question is, are they actually going to do anything before the midterm elections come about? It's not necessarily clear that they have the time or inclination to do so."

5. GOP hopes all politics still local

And from CNN's chief national correspondent John King:

Last week there was evidence of a dip in President Trump's approval rating. This week the overwhelming focus was on White House chaos and the character and temperament questions raised by the new Bob Woodward book and then the anonymous New York Times essay from a senior administration official.

Not great developments for Republicans trying to protect the GOP House majority, to say the least.

Inside 60 days now to the midterms, most Republicans with significant campaign experience concede the odds of protecting the House majority are bleak -- and concede the past week or two has, to be polite, not been very helpful.

But there are some top GOP strategists who still see a path. Their mantra: make the election about the economy, and local issues; block out President Trump and his Twitter feed as much as possible and get it right when it comes to the nuts and bolts of organizing, turnout and fund-raising.

Even in this group, though, the assessments at the 60-day mark had seeds of worry.

First the math.

"I can still make the case for 15-20," said a longtime GOP strategist involved in 2018 House races, meaning a case that the Republicans lose seats but that Democrats do not get the 23-seat gain needed for the majority. This strategist went on to say, "I can also see 20 to 30, but I believe we are still in play." Meaning still in play to keep the Democratic gains below 23.

A second GOP operative, with some three decades experience, said as of this weekend, "I have us down 17/18 net in the House."

But both operatives pointed to trouble signs beyond any worries about how the President conducts himself.

The powerful national economic news should help GOP candidates. But the second operative said there was growing evidence that "tariffs are starting to have a real impact in the Midwest -- Michigan, for example -- and farm country."

Both operatives also gave Democrats begrudging credit for tapping into concerns about health care costs and access. "Health care is now a roaring issue and the GOP has no answers," the second strategist said.

Minnesota Coronavirus Cases

Data is updated nightly.

Cases: 485655

Reported Deaths: 6558
CountyCasesDeaths
Hennepin1007641586
Ramsey43106801
Dakota36297390
Anoka33293385
Washington22078256
Stearns18734201
St. Louis14805262
Scott13290107
Wright12526115
Olmsted1178988
Sherburne872872
Carver772640
Clay691587
Rice670491
Blue Earth594735
Kandiyohi579574
Crow Wing520681
Chisago499045
Otter Tail482170
Benton446490
Winona418349
Mower404731
Douglas392668
Nobles387047
Goodhue385768
Polk343162
McLeod339349
Beltrami337951
Morrison324547
Itasca313046
Lyon313044
Becker311342
Isanti306154
Steele300411
Carlton300149
Pine282016
Freeborn280723
Nicollet258641
Todd248030
Brown245037
Le Sueur235320
Mille Lacs227447
Cass220024
Waseca208717
Meeker207434
Martin189528
Wabasha18653
Roseau180217
Hubbard160640
Houston157314
Dodge15224
Renville149640
Redwood147027
Fillmore13728
Chippewa136335
Cottonwood134820
Pennington134416
Wadena130920
Faribault123017
Aitkin118833
Sibley117310
Watonwan11738
Rock115714
Kanabec107519
Pipestone101424
Yellow Medicine97617
Murray9448
Jackson93510
Swift87918
Pope8045
Marshall77815
Stevens7418
Lake74018
Clearwater71914
Lac qui Parle68416
Wilkin67110
Koochiching61811
Big Stone5163
Lincoln5062
Grant4918
Norman4788
Unassigned46768
Mahnomen4417
Kittson40921
Red Lake3625
Traverse3055
Lake of the Woods2191
Cook1180

Iowa Coronavirus Cases

Data is updated nightly.

Cases: 362827

Reported Deaths: 5440
CountyCasesDeaths
Polk58260551
Linn20670313
Scott18318210
Black Hawk16258292
Woodbury14979211
Johnson1384874
Dubuque13562194
Dallas1138690
Pottawattamie10791143
Story1024945
Warren556674
Clinton543784
Cerro Gordo533782
Webster519587
Marshall497272
Sioux494869
Buena Vista474537
Des Moines458861
Muscatine452291
Wapello4345108
Jasper417766
Plymouth395378
Lee375452
Marion359169
Jones294154
Henry293337
Carroll286249
Bremer280854
Crawford275135
Boone259730
Washington254347
Benton253854
Mahaska224746
Jackson221638
Dickinson217840
Tama213765
Kossuth208555
Clay193625
Hamilton192142
Delaware189140
Winneshiek189127
Buchanan185729
Fayette185235
Page183319
Hardin181439
Wright179931
Harrison179469
Cedar178523
Clayton168154
Butler167231
Mills163020
Floyd162741
Cherokee154836
Madison154718
Poweshiek154330
Hancock147130
Allamakee146747
Lyon145941
Iowa145023
Appanoose139247
Grundy139230
Jefferson138734
Winnebago138631
Cass134751
Calhoun133811
Mitchell130940
Louisa128241
Union126631
Chickasaw125215
Sac124618
Emmet121740
Shelby121733
Franklin118319
Humboldt117925
Guthrie116628
Palo Alto105221
Montgomery104136
Howard102921
Clarke100420
Unassigned9900
Keokuk98229
Monroe93328
Adair92128
Ida91432
Pocahontas85419
Davis83123
Monona81627
Greene77510
Lucas74021
Osceola70615
Worth6997
Taylor66612
Fremont5909
Decatur5829
Van Buren56118
Ringgold52320
Wayne48921
Audubon4889
Adams3274
Rochester/St. Mary'S
Clear
48° wxIcon
Hi: 49° Lo: 26°
Feels Like: 44°
Mason City
Clear
50° wxIcon
Hi: 52° Lo: 29°
Feels Like: 50°
Albert Lea
Partly Cloudy
45° wxIcon
Hi: 47° Lo: 28°
Feels Like: 45°
Austin
Partly Cloudy
45° wxIcon
Hi: 48° Lo: 27°
Feels Like: 45°
Charles City
Partly Cloudy
48° wxIcon
Hi: 49° Lo: 27°
Feels Like: 48°
Several days of mild weather expected
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