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CNN Poll: Democratic advantage grows in race for Congress

Democrats now lead Republicans by 52% to 41% in a nationwide generic Congressional ballot according to a new...

Posted: Aug 16, 2018 11:37 AM
Updated: Aug 16, 2018 11:37 AM

Democrats now lead Republicans by 52% to 41% in a nationwide generic Congressional ballot according to a new CNN poll conducted by SSRS and released Tuesday. The blue lead has increased slightly from eight percentage points in June of this year to an 11 percentage point difference in the most recent poll.

Despite Democrats' advantage on that measure, a plurality (48%) in the same poll believe Republicans will maintain control of Congress after the election, compared with 40% who believe Democrats will gain control.

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Among those who favor the Democratic candidate in their district, 64% say they think Democrats will ultimately win control of Congress, while among those backing Republican candidates, 83% think the GOP will maintain control.

Compared to previous elections, 68% of registered voters say they're more enthusiastic to vote in this election than in the past. Registered Democrats and Republicans report being more excited to vote at similar levels, with 70% and 68% saying so, respectively.

However, Democrats have taken a much higher leap in enthusiasm vs. 2016 than Republicans. When CNN last asked the question, in September 2016, only 38% of Democrats said they were "more enthusiastic," while 48% of Republicans said the same. Registered Democrats jumped 32-points since 2016 and Republicans moved 20-points.

Health care is key

Health care tops the list of important issues voters will consider this fall with 81% saying it's extremely or very important to their vote for Congress, followed very closely by the economy (80%).

Immigration is on the rise as a critical issue -- from 38% in May to 44% now. However, the issue's overall importance hasn't increased substantially.

Gun policy remains a deeply important issue for almost three quarters of Americans (73% call it extremely or very important to their vote), and corruption -- an issue newly in the spotlight following Rep. Chris Collins' arrest on insider trading charges -- outpaces trade policy and taxes in importance to voters (74% call corruption extremely or very important vs. 64% on trade policy and 71% on taxes).

Beyond those issues, Trump and House Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi -- two politicians who are the subject of many a campaign ad this cycle -- provoke very different reactions. Most voters, 68%, say that Trump will be an important factor in their vote this fall, while only about a third (34%) feel the same way about Pelosi.

The Russia factor

The investigation into Russian interference in the 2016 election is climbing as a relevant issue for voters, the percentage calling it at least very important has increased by five points since May.

That rising concern comes as a majority of Americans see foreign interference as likely in this fall's elections. Six-in-ten say it's very or somewhat likely that a foreign government will interfere in the US elections this fall with only 37% saying it's not too likely or not likely at all. There are sharp differences by party on this question, with 35% of Republicans seeing foreign meddling with US congressional elections as likely, well below expectations among Democrats (83% likely) or independents (56% likely).

If a foreign government were to meddle in US elections, almost three-quarters say it would be a crisis or major problem. Almost three in 10, 28%, think it would be a crisis, 46% a major problem, 16% a minor problem, and 8% believe it wouldn't be a problem at all.

A plurality of every single demographic group viewed hypothetical meddling by a foreign government in US elections as a major problem, including those who approve of President Trump's job performance at 43%.

Those most likely to view hypothetical foreign meddling in US elections as a crisis are those who disapprove of Trump (42%), Democrats (41%), and women (36%).

Most don't know about QAnon

The group QAnon, which has become a regular presence at Trump's rallies in recent weeks, hasn't made an impression on most Americans. About two-thirds (65%) say they haven't heard anything at all about it, and another 19% have heard of it but don't know enough to have an opinion on it. The impressions it has made are largely negative: 12% say they have a negative impression of the group vs. just 2% who hold it in a positive light.

College graduates and Democrats are the most likely to have heard a great deal or just some about QAnon, but no demographic subgroup had a positive impression of them.

The CNN poll was conducted by SSRS August 9-12 among a random national sample of 1,002 adults and 921 registered voters reached on landlines or cellphones by a live interviewer. Results for the full sample have a margin of sampling error of plus or minus 3.9 percentage points, it is larger for subgroups.

Minnesota Coronavirus Cases

Data is updated nightly.

Cases: 270157

Reported Deaths: 3297
CountyCasesDeaths
Hennepin579261084
Ramsey24528470
Anoka19211213
Dakota18738176
Washington12351104
Stearns1200389
Scott735654
St. Louis712297
Wright646135
Olmsted604730
Sherburne499538
Clay435954
Carver397312
Blue Earth367011
Rice350331
Kandiyohi337613
Crow Wing306729
Nobles293828
Chisago27778
Benton256338
Otter Tail251415
Winona240928
Mower232822
Polk222221
Douglas211929
Morrison207521
Lyon189810
McLeod18089
Beltrami177115
Goodhue173126
Becker16769
Itasca165223
Steele16396
Todd161412
Isanti159115
Carlton148310
Nicollet144523
Freeborn13625
Mille Lacs129030
Le Sueur12899
Waseca128710
Pine11625
Cass11538
Brown112610
Meeker10117
Martin97020
Roseau9443
Hubbard92822
Wabasha8961
Dodge7770
Watonwan7604
Redwood75118
Chippewa7437
Renville68818
Sibley6844
Cottonwood6800
Wadena6706
Pipestone65618
Aitkin64722
Rock6259
Houston6012
Fillmore5910
Yellow Medicine55310
Unassigned52756
Murray5173
Pennington5076
Kanabec49711
Swift4835
Faribault4650
Pope4620
Stevens4342
Clearwater4156
Marshall4047
Jackson3981
Lake3463
Koochiching3275
Wilkin3175
Lac qui Parle3123
Lincoln3081
Norman3006
Big Stone2711
Mahnomen2404
Grant2256
Red Lake1833
Kittson1786
Traverse1190
Lake of the Woods821
Cook570

Iowa Coronavirus Cases

Data is updated nightly.

Cases: 210482

Reported Deaths: 2173
CountyCasesDeaths
Polk31270322
Linn13252158
Scott1022075
Black Hawk10209126
Woodbury9870111
Johnson900835
Dubuque866490
Story637819
Dallas595555
Pottawattamie574666
Sioux349925
Webster330928
Marshall327841
Cerro Gordo323041
Clinton303637
Buena Vista290214
Muscatine266964
Des Moines266116
Plymouth257937
Warren254610
Wapello239971
Jones221112
Jasper202739
Marion191518
Carroll188220
Lee188015
Bremer176012
Henry16847
Crawford168215
Benton157414
Tama145140
Jackson13608
Delaware134721
Boone127711
Washington126513
Dickinson126210
Mahaska119027
Wright11425
Buchanan10789
Page10774
Hardin105810
Clay10434
Harrison101428
Clayton10084
Cedar98913
Hamilton9877
Mills9806
Calhoun9787
Fayette9588
Lyon9458
Floyd92614
Kossuth9214
Poweshiek91512
Butler8943
Winneshiek88910
Winnebago87423
Iowa86711
Louisa79916
Hancock7947
Chickasaw7853
Grundy77310
Sac7617
Cherokee7484
Cass73519
Appanoose7336
Shelby7184
Allamakee71111
Mitchell7074
Emmet70123
Guthrie69215
Union6866
Franklin67619
Humboldt6495
Madison6414
Jefferson6121
Palo Alto6044
Unassigned5810
Keokuk5237
Pocahontas5072
Howard4999
Osceola4941
Greene4860
Clarke4564
Ida42810
Monroe42812
Montgomery42610
Davis4225
Taylor4162
Adair4066
Monona3912
Fremont3432
Worth3330
Van Buren3294
Lucas3056
Decatur2950
Wayne2836
Audubon2811
Ringgold1832
Adams1521
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