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CNN House Key Races: 4 races move toward Democrats, 3 toward Republicans

The dust has mostly settled from last week's primaries in eight states, clearing the air enough to update a few of CN...

Posted: Jun 13, 2018 9:03 AM
Updated: Jun 13, 2018 9:03 AM

The dust has mostly settled from last week's primaries in eight states, clearing the air enough to update a few of CNN's House Race Ratings.

Democrats managed to avoid getting blocked from the general election ballot in several key California races that could determine control of the House in November. The party also landed its top choices in four New Jersey contests, which could further help Democrats on their mission of flipping 23 seats to seize control of the House majority.

The lack of any major surprises leaves our ratings largely intact, although there are a few races where last Tuesday's results warrant a move.

Of the seven races we are moving, four are in the direction of the Democrats, while three shift toward Republicans.

CA-10: Democrats avoided getting locked out in this Central Valley district with venture capitalist Josh Harder running a distant second behind incumbent GOP Rep. Jeff Denham. But in a potential warning sign for Denham, he received 38% of the primary vote -- nine points below his share in the 2016 primary. The 10th District is majority-minority -- including 42% Latino -- and is one of a limited number of competitive House seats in California. Denham has been one of the Republicans leading the charge in the House to force a vote on immigration reform. The four-term lawmaker has more than $2 million in the bank as of mid-May, compared with $366,000 for Harden -- though the Democrat demonstrated fundraising strength in the primary, hauling in $1.4 million since launching his bid. Denham won re-election by four points in 2016, when Hillary Clinton carried the district by three points. Barack Obama won the district by four points in 2012. Race moves from Lean Republican to Toss-Up.

CA-39: Democrat Gil Cisneros and Republican Young Kim are set to face off in what is expected to be one of the most closely-watched House races this fall. The path back to the majority for Democrats runs in large part through California, and the seven Republican-held seats that Hillary Clinton carried in 2016. The 39th District, represented by retiring GOP Rep. Ed Royce, is among them. Clinton won here by eight points in 2016, a swing from Mitt Romney's four-point edge here four years earlier. Latinos, Asian-Americans and whites each make up roughly a third of the district's population. Cisneros, a Navy veteran and millionaire lottery winner, was the top choice of the DCCC. Kim, a Korean immigrant and former assemblywoman, could appeal to groups that typically favor Democrats. Race moves from Lean Democratic to Toss-Up.

CA-50: Embattled GOP Rep. Duncan Hunter will face public affairs consultant Ammar Campa-Najjar in this conservative district that backed Trump by 15 points and Romney by 22 points. The area is home to many veterans and military retirees, which had some Democrats thinking former Navy SEAL Josh Butner might have presented a tougher challenge to Hunter. Campa-Najjar, a former Obama administration official, is running on a progressive platform that includes tuition-free college and moving toward a Medicare-for-All health care system. At this point it seems the only thing stopping Hunter from re-election in November is if he is charged in the federal investigation into whether he misused campaign funds. Race moves from Likely Republican to Solid Republican.

NJ-11: Democrats are poised to flip this seat represented by retiring GOP Rep. Rodney Frelinghuysen. Former federal prosecutor and Navy pilot Mikie Sherrill scored an overwhelming win in last week's Democratic primary and has $1.8 million in the bank at last check. State Assemblyman Jay Webber claimed the Republican nomination -- although there was lower turnout in the competitive GOP primary than there was on the Democratic side. His latest fundraising report showed about $225,000 cash on hand. In 2016, this Republican-leaning district backed President Trump over Hillary Clinton 48% to 47%. Mitt Romney won it with 53% four years earlier. Race moves from Toss-Up to Lean Democratic.

FL-25: The decision last month by former Miami judge Mary Barzee Flores to exit the Democratic primary in the 27th District and run in the 25th gives eight-term GOP Rep. Mario Diaz-Balart a serious challenger. Diaz-Balart starts the race with a significant fundraising advantage, entering April with $1.2 million compared with $400,000 for Barzee Flores. Donald Trump narrowly clipped Hillary Clinton in this south Florida district 49% to 48%. Four years earlier Mitt Romney won the district 51% to 49% against Barack Obama. In a strong Democratic year, Diaz-Balart could be in danger, though he has proven he can withstand such political winds in previous cycles. Race moves from Solid Republican to Likely Republican.

TX-31: GOP Rep. John Carter has coasted to re-election since taking office more than 15 years ago, but he's facing a potentially competitive challenge from Democrat M.J. Hegar in this central Texas district north of Austin. Hegar is a former Air Force combat search and rescue pilot who helped rescue passengers after her helicopter was shot down by the Taliban in 2009. She received a Purple Heart and the Distinguished Flying Cross with Valor Device for her service in Afghanistan. Hegar won her Democratic runoff in May by 24 points and had $117,000 cash on hand at the beginning of the month. Carter started April with $350,000 in the bank, but was outraised by Hegar in the first quarter of 2018. Race moves from Solid Republican to Likely Republican.

WI-07: The sudden decision last month by Kyle Frenette to withdraw from the race leaves Democrats in search of a top challenger for GOP Rep. Sean Duffy in this northern Wisconsin district. Frenette, the manager of the band Bon Iver, raised $250,000 in six weeks after launching his bid, giving Democrats hope he might be able to stay competitive with Duffy and his $2.2 million war chest. Among the Democrats running are physician Brian Ewert, attorney Margaret Engebretson and Bob Look, a former radio host whose wife was killed in a shooting last year. For now, it appears Duffy's path to re-election is a little easier. Race moves from Likely Republican to Solid Republican.

Minnesota Coronavirus Cases

Data is updated nightly.

Confirmed Cases: 61839

Reported Deaths: 1707
CountyConfirmedDeaths
Hennepin19569839
Ramsey7717268
Dakota4507106
Anoka3752115
Stearns290920
Washington216345
Nobles17686
Olmsted176723
Scott159020
Mower11052
Rice10388
Blue Earth9325
Wright8975
Carver8783
Clay78840
Sherburne7328
Kandiyohi7021
St. Louis57319
Todd4292
Lyon4253
Freeborn3601
Steele3512
Nicollet34713
Watonwan3230
Benton3203
Winona26416
Beltrami2440
Crow Wing23814
Le Sueur2261
Martin2095
Chisago2041
McLeod2020
Goodhue1999
Otter Tail1983
Cottonwood1780
Becker1611
Pipestone1589
Polk1554
Waseca1490
Itasca14612
Douglas1441
Carlton1420
Unassigned13141
Dodge1290
Isanti1290
Pine1290
Murray1241
Chippewa1071
Morrison931
Wabasha930
Brown892
Faribault890
Meeker872
Rock850
Sibley842
Koochiching793
Jackson790
Pennington751
Cass742
Mille Lacs723
Fillmore670
Renville665
Lincoln580
Grant563
Swift551
Yellow Medicine520
Roseau520
Pope480
Houston420
Aitkin411
Norman400
Kanabec371
Redwood360
Hubbard350
Wilkin343
Marshall290
Wadena270
Mahnomen271
Red Lake240
Big Stone220
Lake210
Stevens180
Clearwater140
Traverse110
Lac qui Parle80
Cook50
Lake of the Woods40
Kittson30

Iowa Coronavirus Cases

Data is updated nightly.

Confirmed Cases: 49380

Reported Deaths: 942
CountyConfirmedDeaths
Polk10444208
Woodbury373452
Black Hawk315766
Linn242888
Johnson211819
Dallas189835
Buena Vista179412
Scott174314
Dubuque169831
Marshall145026
Pottawattamie133228
Story117315
Wapello90533
Muscatine85148
Webster8268
Crawford7313
Sioux6433
Cerro Gordo63417
Warren5721
Tama55429
Jasper48127
Wright4751
Plymouth47011
Clinton4164
Dickinson3844
Louisa37814
Washington30510
Boone2623
Hamilton2511
Franklin24512
Bremer2307
Clarke2043
Clay2011
Carroll1942
Emmet1934
Des Moines1872
Shelby1861
Hardin1840
Marion1750
Poweshiek1608
Benton1601
Floyd1582
Allamakee1564
Jackson1561
Mahaska14217
Guthrie1355
Cedar1341
Jones1332
Buchanan1291
Henry1274
Madison1252
Butler1252
Hancock1212
Lee1183
Humboldt1181
Pocahontas1172
Delaware1171
Lyon1152
Harrison1101
Cherokee1101
Clayton1063
Taylor1000
Winneshiek971
Iowa971
Page950
Monona910
Kossuth900
Mills890
Palo Alto880
Jefferson870
Calhoun862
Winnebago860
Sac860
Fayette850
Osceola840
Grundy801
Mitchell790
Cass791
Union781
Monroe748
Lucas734
Worth670
Davis612
Montgomery604
Chickasaw550
Appanoose513
Howard500
Fremont430
Greene430
Keokuk371
Van Buren361
Ida310
Adair300
Audubon291
Decatur250
Ringgold231
Wayne201
Adams160
Unassigned10
Rochester
Clear
68° wxIcon
Hi: 69° Lo: 64°
Feels Like: 68°
Mason City
Clear
72° wxIcon
Hi: 82° Lo: 66°
Feels Like: 72°
Albert Lea
Clear
72° wxIcon
Hi: 77° Lo: 66°
Feels Like: 72°
Austin
Clear
70° wxIcon
Hi: 80° Lo: 67°
Feels Like: 70°
Charles City
Clear
72° wxIcon
Hi: 80° Lo: 66°
Feels Like: 72°
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