Kim Jong Un's great miscalculation?

To Kim Jong Un, May 24 should have been a diplomatic triumph. The North Korean leader had just opened the doors of hi...

Posted: May 25, 2018 11:28 AM
Updated: May 25, 2018 11:28 AM

To Kim Jong Un, May 24 should have been a diplomatic triumph. The North Korean leader had just opened the doors of his isolated country to the world, allowing foreign journalists to observe what had deemed a crowning achievement in Pyongyang's nuclear quest.

The test site at Punggye-Ri was to be dismantled, he'd announced earlier this year, because North Korea had accomplished its nuclear goals and no longer needed to keep conducting missile launches.

Still on a high from his visits with foreign leaders and the anticipation of a meeting -- finally -- with a sitting American president, he declared international journalists would be welcome to witness his regime's transparency in destroying tunnels and shutting down the mountain.

It was a far cry from last year, when he'd boasted of North Korea's ability to send missiles to the US mainland, ratcheting up threats of nuclear annihilation as President Donald Trump responded in equally fiery tones.

But after nearly six months of calm dotted with bright moments of unity and promises of reconciliation and peace, the Korean peninsula is once again thrust into uncertainty after Trump informed Kim that the summit was canceled.

Seemingly caught unawares, the Kim regime rushed to present a response that was both conciliatory and admiring of Trump, while defensive and defiant of its outreach efforts.

As far as the summit with Trump was concerned, "we have inwardly highly appreciated President Trump for having made the bold decision, which any other US presidents dared not, and made efforts for such a crucial event as the summit," read the statement from First Vice Minister of Foreign Affairs, Kim Kye Gwan.

In the weeks leading up to the historic meeting both sides had criticized the other while also promising economic rejuvenation and expressing readiness to resolve decades-long conflicts.

But they had also both threatened to pull out of the talks, and they had both promised to deploy military options should diplomacy fail.

In his letter to Kim Jong Un canceling the summit Trump wrote: "You talk about your nuclear capabilities, but ours are so massive and powerful that I pray to God they will never have to be used."

"Well, I think North Korea almost dared Trump to cancel the summit, and he did it," said Srinivasan Sitaraman, political science professor at Clark University. "The North Korean statement yesterday was the proverbial straw that broke the camel's back," he said, referring to the statement by Vice Foreign Minister Choe Son-hui, which referred to US Vice President Mike Pence as "a political dummy" who'd made "ignorant and stupid remarks."

"I don't think after yesterday's North Korean statement there was any way for the summit to go forward," he told CNN.

Like other North Korean experts Sitaraman believes it's best the summit not happen because there is still bad blood between the two parties, and zero trust.

"There is fundamental misunderstanding between the American and the North Korean positions," he said. "North Korea never ever promised that they would give up their weapons, while the US continued to demand full denuclearization and surrender."

Whether the end of talks might lead to the resumption of hostilities is an open question.

"The US and North Korea need some time for full consideration of what has made such failure," said Chang-Hoon Shin, a senior research fellow with the Korea Institute for Maritime Strategy. "In the absence of mutual credibility, the differences of opinions and methods to a long journey of denuclearization continued to be widened. I mean, the failure was inevitable."

In Seoul, an embarrassed President Moon Jae-in, who had met with Trump in Washington less than 24 hours earlier, hurriedly convened an emergency meeting of his cabinet to attempt to decipher the meaning of Trump's decision, and where South Korea, which has been at the forefront of talks with North Korea, goes next.

"South Korea's mediator or driver-seat role has failed, and President Moon and his staff will come under heavy criticism," said Seong Whun Cheon, a visiting research fellow at the Asan Institute for Policy Studies. The two Koreas' plan to end the war and sign a peace treaty "will be derailed for an unforeseeable period of time," he predicted.

"I'm already beginning to see some statements from South Korea that seem to intimate that it might try to salvage the summit with Moon up for re-election soon, and the immense domestic reverberation that the cancellation will bring," said Sitaraman.

"South Korea might try to decouple all of the issues they are trying to work out with the North and table the "full denuclearization" aspect while working towards their other goals," he told CNN.

In his letter to Kim, Trump left the door open to future talks, and indeed, now that Secretary of State Mike Pompeo has already traveled to Pyongyang twice and met with Kim on both occasions, that channel may be able to prevent immediate military reactions, says David Maxwell, a retired US Army Special Forces colonel and a fellow at the Institute of Korean American Studies.

"Maybe in the long run this will put us on the track to have our diplomats engage and set the scene for something to happen over the next six months," he told CNN.

A potential problem will come with reaction in Beijing and Moscow, he noted. Both North Korean allies, Russia and China have yielded to pressure from the US to enact punishing economic sanctions on North Korea. The White House has claimed those were instrumental in bringing Kim to the negotiating table in the first place.

Given that Trump, and not Kim has walked away from the June meeting, both nations can now potentially relax those sanctions and blame the US for the failure in diplomacy, says Maxwell.

"I think China and Russia will say: 'You backed out of the invitation, the US is the one that is acting irrationally, that is operating irresponsibly, so we need to ease up on the sanctions to help the Korean people,' so they have the justification for reducing the sanctions," he said. "In some ways, Kim is still playing a masterful game."

Maxwell speculates that Kim might have been skittish about coming to the summit because he would have had to stand before the world and agree to terms that he may not have been able to sell back home. It's possible, Maxwell argues, that North Korea turned up the rhetoric to extort a response from Trump and prompt the US to back out first.

"I think they reverted to their old playbook, cause tensions to rise and have them cancel," he posited. "The test site destruction was simply a sham and I think that's been exposed, and the only reason for continuing the summit, the only benefit he would get, is a direct meeting with the President."

It's possible, Maxwell says, that Kim calculated that even such a tempting prize was not worth the risk, if it weakened his position at home.

Minnesota Coronavirus Cases

Data is updated nightly.

Confirmed Cases: 87807

Reported Deaths: 2002
CountyConfirmedDeaths
Hennepin25454917
Ramsey10349316
Dakota6995125
Anoka5596132
Stearns367023
Washington349255
Scott236632
Olmsted225327
Nobles192016
Blue Earth15566
Wright14937
Carver13197
Rice12908
St. Louis128229
Mower12614
Clay121340
Sherburne106313
Kandiyohi9112
Winona82818
Lyon6344
Steele5132
Freeborn5043
Nicollet49516
Watonwan4954
Benton4923
Todd4722
Le Sueur4413
McLeod4382
Waseca4228
Chisago4211
Crow Wing41018
Otter Tail3734
Beltrami3654
Goodhue3219
Martin2909
Itasca26413
Polk2624
Becker2372
Pine2360
Isanti2340
Carlton2311
Douglas2291
Cottonwood2140
Pipestone2089
Morrison1901
Dodge1880
Chippewa1851
Sibley1693
Meeker1662
Wabasha1660
Unassigned16552
Brown1642
Murray1492
Rock1450
Yellow Medicine1442
Mille Lacs1363
Faribault1290
Jackson1251
Cass1233
Renville1206
Roseau1090
Pennington1081
Fillmore1050
Houston1040
Swift1041
Kanabec1008
Koochiching1003
Lincoln950
Redwood930
Stevens901
Pope820
Hubbard710
Aitkin691
Big Stone660
Wadena610
Grant574
Wilkin553
Norman510
Lake480
Marshall481
Mahnomen451
Lac qui Parle410
Red Lake370
Traverse290
Clearwater240
Lake of the Woods201
Kittson130
Cook60

Iowa Coronavirus Cases

Data is updated nightly.

Confirmed Cases: 78552

Reported Deaths: 1255
CountyConfirmedDeaths
Polk15133256
Johnson496227
Woodbury486561
Black Hawk431686
Linn3722105
Story326317
Scott271227
Dubuque266140
Dallas265338
Pottawattamie195137
Buena Vista193312
Marshall175634
Sioux12753
Wapello124357
Webster118414
Muscatine105452
Clinton104618
Plymouth100120
Cerro Gordo98621
Crawford9804
Warren9226
Jasper74232
Des Moines7247
Marion7014
Tama68531
Carroll6275
Henry5974
Lee5857
Wright5571
Dickinson4756
Bremer4597
Boone4557
Washington42711
Louisa41915
Franklin33117
Mahaska32619
Delaware3183
Hamilton3143
Jackson2923
Floyd2913
Winneshiek2835
Benton2781
Clay2773
Hardin2731
Winnebago26211
Butler2572
Clarke2533
Emmet24810
Shelby2411
Jones2393
Allamakee2375
Poweshiek2368
Lyon2323
Buchanan2291
Clayton2273
Cedar2171
Guthrie2115
Kossuth2090
Chickasaw2030
Grundy2002
Madison1992
Sac1980
Cherokee1792
Howard1795
Iowa1791
Fayette1781
Mitchell1750
Hancock1712
Harrison1692
Humboldt1693
Calhoun1672
Mills1621
Palo Alto1560
Pocahontas1502
Monroe14410
Page1410
Lucas1386
Jefferson1321
Cass1282
Monona1281
Osceola1210
Appanoose1193
Taylor1191
Union1193
Davis1134
Van Buren1081
Worth1000
Keokuk891
Montgomery855
Ida840
Greene820
Fremont790
Wayne792
Adair621
Decatur580
Audubon551
Ringgold412
Adams270
Unassigned150
Rochester
Clear
56° wxIcon
Hi: 66° Lo: 49°
Feels Like: 56°
Mason City
Clear
54° wxIcon
Hi: 68° Lo: 49°
Feels Like: 54°
Albert Lea
Clear
57° wxIcon
Hi: 67° Lo: 51°
Feels Like: 57°
Austin
Clear
55° wxIcon
Hi: 67° Lo: 50°
Feels Like: 55°
Charles City
Clear
54° wxIcon
Hi: 68° Lo: 48°
Feels Like: 54°
Warmer Weather Ahead
KIMT Radar
KIMT Eye in the sky

Latest Video

Image

Saturday Weather

Image

What are the benefits of bringing football back to Minnesota this fall?

Image

Candlelight vigil for Prisoners of War

Image

MC Masters National Championship Regatta

Image

Early voting begins in Minnesota

Image

Dooley's Pub closes due to health hazards

Image

Area athletic directors prep to welcome back sports

Image

Early voting begins in Minnesota

Image

TikTok Ban to Begin This Weekend

Image

Sara's Evening Forecast - Friday

Community Events