CNN Poll: Democratic advantage narrows in 2018

As the midterm election year begins, a new CNN poll conducted by SSRS finds the Democratic advantage on a generic con...

Posted: Jan 21, 2018 11:51 PM
Updated: Jan 21, 2018 11:51 PM

As the midterm election year begins, a new CNN poll conducted by SSRS finds the Democratic advantage on a generic congressional ballot has tightened to a narrow 5 points among registered voters, but those voters who say they are most enthusiastic about turning out to vote this fall favor Democrats by a wide 15-point margin.

The new poll's 49% Democrat to 44% Republican margin among registered voters is almost identical to Democrats' standing in January of 2006, the last midterm election year in which they made significant gains in the House of Representatives.

52% of voters say they're more likely to back a candidate who opposes Trump

Democratic advantage now mirrors their edge in January 2006

Liberal Democrats most enthusiastic about voting this year

But it represents a large shift from CNN polls conducted in the past three months, in which Democrats held double-digit advantages over the Republicans. Preferences among all adults have shifted less dramatically, but are also tighter than last fall, with Democrats currently 10 points ahead of Republicans among all Americans.

Enthusiasm about voting in this year's contests has grown as the calendar page has turned, with a spike among Republicans and Republican-leaning independents from 32% feeling extremely or very enthusiastic about casting a ballot in December to 43% saying the same now. Democrats still hold an advantage in enthusiasm, however, with 51% saying they are that enthusiastic about voting in this year's midterm elections.

Enthusiasm for this year's contests peaks among liberal Democrats, 62% of whom say they are deeply energized about voting. Among conservative Republicans, just 46% say the same.

That disparity is fueling the Democrats' much wider edge on the generic ballot among enthusiastic voters. Among those voters who call themselves extremely or very enthusiastic about casting a ballot, 56% favor the Democratic candidate in their district, while 41% favor the Republican. Republicans hold a 5-point edge among those voters who rate themselves somewhat enthusiastic or less.

The tightened race among voters more broadly reflects shifts among independent voters in the last month, who broke heavily in Democrats' favor on the generic ballot in a December poll conducted amid Republican efforts to pass an unpopular tax bill. In the new poll, independents have grown more positive toward Donald Trump, and now split almost evenly on the generic ballot: 45% for the Republican in their district to 42% for the Democrat.

Beyond these basic partisan dynamics, the poll finds a majority of voters more apt to back a candidate for Congress who opposes President Trump (52%), with just 41% saying they prefer a candidate who'll back the President. That's shifted some in the President's favor since November, as his approval rating has risen. But the current divide mirrors the public's preference in early 2006, when 52% said they preferred a candidate who would oppose George W. Bush and 39% wanted a candidate who would back him.

The CNN Poll was conducted by SSRS January 14-18 among a random national sample of 1,005 adults reached on landlines or cellphones by a live interviewer. No interviewing was completed on January 16 due to weather conditions at call center locations. Results for all adults have a margin of sampling error of plus or minus 3.7 percentage points; it is 3.8 points for registered voters.

Minnesota Coronavirus Cases

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Hennepin25857922
Ramsey10492318
Dakota7125125
Anoka5753132
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Scott242633
Olmsted228727
Nobles193116
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Clay126140
Sherburne109314
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Steele5212
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Cook60

Iowa Coronavirus Cases

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Confirmed Cases: 80106

Reported Deaths: 1256
CountyConfirmedDeaths
Polk15318256
Johnson499527
Woodbury498961
Black Hawk434986
Linn3783106
Story328617
Dubuque279840
Scott279727
Dallas269038
Pottawattamie200037
Buena Vista194712
Marshall176134
Sioux13503
Wapello126757
Webster119314
Clinton107018
Muscatine106452
Plymouth105220
Crawford10014
Cerro Gordo99621
Warren9286
Jasper76632
Des Moines7417
Marion7154
Tama69031
Carroll6345
Henry6074
Lee5967
Wright5621
Dickinson4856
Boone4677
Bremer4627
Washington43111
Louisa42515
Mahaska34019
Franklin33617
Delaware3353
Hamilton3143
Jackson3003
Floyd2983
Winneshiek2985
Clay2923
Benton2861
Hardin2761
Winnebago27111
Butler2592
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Emmet25210
Poweshiek2498
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Jones2443
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Clayton2323
Guthrie2235
Cedar2211
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Sac2140
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Madison2052
Cherokee1942
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Iowa1851
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Humboldt1733
Hancock1722
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Monroe14810
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Page1420
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