SEVERE WX : Winter Weather Advisory View Alerts

This number is bad news for Republicans in the midterms

Midterm elections -- like the one coming up in 2018 -- are all about turning out base voters. Why? History tells us t...

Posted: Dec 8, 2017 8:22 AM
Updated: Dec 8, 2017 8:22 AM

Midterm elections -- like the one coming up in 2018 -- are all about turning out base voters. Why? History tells us that only the most stalwart partisans turn out when the presidential race isn't on the ballot. So if your side wants to pick up House and Senate seats in a non-presidential election, you need to find ways to excite its most committed members.

Which is where the Republican tax plan approved by the Senate last week comes in. And the fact that, according to a new CBS poll, lots more people hate the plan than love it.

Just 16% of people in the poll said they "strongly" approved of the GOP tax plan. That number pales in comparison to the 40% who said they "strongly" disapprove of it.

A similar question -- "Which best describes how you would feel if the Republican tax plan was signed into law?" -- produced equally concerning results for Republicans. Just 8% said they would be "excited" by the new tax law while 22% said they would be "angry." (Another 28% said they would be "satisfied" and 31% said they would be "disappointed.")

Dig into the numbers and the direness for Republicans becomes more apparent. While 46% of Republicans strongly approve of the tax plan, 71% of Democrats strongly disapprove.

Ditto the "angry" versus "excited" breakdown. Just 19% of Republicans said they were excited about the prospect of the tax bill becoming law as compared to 39% of Democrats who said they were angry.

What those numbers suggest is that the Republican tax bill is a major motivator for Democratic base voters and far less of one for the GOP base. Meaning that the tax bill looks far more likely to drive Democrats to the polls to show their anger and disapproval than it is to push Republicans to vote next November in support of it.

The base enthusiasm problem surrounding the tax bill is indicative of a broader enthusiasm gap between the two party bases. Democrats, at the moment, are extremely motivated to go to the ballot box and send a message -- a negative one -- to President Donald Trump. Republicans are far less enthused to turn out to show support for Trump.

In Virginia's 2017 election, Democrats comprised 41% of the overall electorate as compared to just 30% for Republicans, according to exit polling. Almost half of the electorate (47%) said they strongly disapproved of Trump, and Democratic nominee Ralph Northam won 95% of those voters.

If Republicans can't close that enthusiasm gap, they are in for a very rough 2018 election. And, at least at first glance, their much-touted tax cut plan makes their passion problem worse, not better.

Minnesota Coronavirus Cases

Data is updated nightly.

Confirmed Cases: 132122

Reported Deaths: 2381
CountyConfirmedDeaths
Hennepin33719984
Ramsey13909358
Dakota9686137
Anoka8552150
Washington583071
Stearns574343
Scott334834
Olmsted323230
St. Louis291267
Wright243214
Clay228043
Nobles225716
Blue Earth20367
Carver17677
Sherburne166521
Kandiyohi16585
Rice16289
Mower150815
Winona124319
Crow Wing99021
Chisago9812
Lyon9596
Waseca9279
Benton9238
Beltrami8767
Otter Tail8517
Todd7865
Steele7563
Itasca71917
Nicollet71817
Morrison7129
Douglas6723
Freeborn6664
Le Sueur6205
Polk6184
Martin61117
McLeod5884
Watonwan5784
Goodhue57311
Becker5513
Pine5310
Isanti5275
Chippewa4293
Carlton4231
Mille Lacs40115
Dodge3920
Hubbard3792
Wabasha3700
Cass3665
Pipestone34517
Meeker3253
Rock3244
Brown3203
Yellow Medicine2815
Cottonwood2760
Murray2753
Redwood27111
Roseau2590
Fillmore2570
Renville25011
Sibley2493
Faribault2280
Wadena2243
Jackson2081
Kanabec20510
Swift2011
Unassigned20153
Houston1971
Pennington1851
Lincoln1820
Stevens1811
Aitkin1772
Koochiching1674
Pope1550
Big Stone1360
Wilkin1334
Lac qui Parle1323
Lake1180
Norman1140
Mahnomen1102
Marshall1101
Clearwater1050
Grant964
Red Lake772
Traverse550
Lake of the Woods441
Kittson380
Cook130

Iowa Coronavirus Cases

Data is updated nightly.

Confirmed Cases: 114201

Reported Deaths: 1620
CountyConfirmedDeaths
Polk18758288
Woodbury712294
Johnson580330
Black Hawk551098
Linn5420129
Dubuque510957
Scott444638
Story397318
Dallas342044
Pottawattamie320444
Sioux239616
Buena Vista224512
Marshall199536
Webster182415
Plymouth163527
Wapello150762
Clinton145726
Muscatine142058
Cerro Gordo135425
Des Moines135410
Crawford135214
Warren12147
Carroll111412
Jasper108134
Henry10465
Marion98310
Lee94310
Tama93737
Delaware76212
Dickinson7257
Wright7161
Boone7119
Mahaska67824
Bremer6619
Washington65011
Harrison64611
Jackson5963
Benton5692
Lyon5427
Clay5244
Louisa51715
Winnebago47419
Hardin4697
Hamilton4664
Winneshiek4669
Kossuth4600
Poweshiek45411
Cedar4445
Buchanan4434
Jones4344
Floyd43011
Emmet42317
Clayton4073
Iowa3968
Cherokee3922
Page3890
Sac3894
Mills3871
Guthrie38415
Franklin38018
Cass3783
Fayette3684
Shelby3671
Butler3662
Allamakee3608
Madison3563
Chickasaw3461
Clarke3453
Humboldt3203
Hancock3124
Palo Alto3092
Grundy3035
Calhoun3004
Osceola2721
Mitchell2670
Howard2669
Monroe25811
Monona2411
Jefferson2341
Taylor2312
Union2294
Appanoose2233
Pocahontas2212
Lucas1996
Fremont1971
Ida1882
Greene1840
Van Buren1722
Davis1704
Montgomery1687
Keokuk1601
Adair1551
Decatur1490
Worth1420
Audubon1411
Wayne1173
Ringgold882
Adams790
Unassigned140
Rochester
Overcast
24° wxIcon
Hi: 29° Lo: 20°
Feels Like: 14°
Mason City
Overcast
26° wxIcon
Hi: 30° Lo: 19°
Feels Like: 16°
Albert Lea
Overcast
25° wxIcon
Hi: 28° Lo: 19°
Feels Like: 18°
Austin
Overcast
25° wxIcon
Hi: 29° Lo: 20°
Feels Like: 16°
Charles City
Overcast
27° wxIcon
Hi: 31° Lo: 21°
Feels Like: 15°
Another Round of Snow
KIMT Radar
KIMT Eye in the sky

Latest Video

Image

Republicans campaign in Rochester

Image

Dr. Deborah Birx in Rochester

Image

Saturday's football highlights and scores

Image

Saturday Weather 10 pm

Image

Dr. Birx in Rochester

Image

Governor Walz veteran listening session

Image

Saturday Weather

Image

Rochester considers new downtown library complex

Image

Rochester Public Works Proposes Speed Limit Reduction

Image

Sports Overtime part two

Community Events